#通货膨胀 Looking at the Federal Reserve's recent statements, I have to be honest — the implication behind the phrase "inflation risks are tilted to the upside" is much deeper than it appears on the surface. Powell said "policy has no risk-free path," which is essentially telling the market: every upcoming decision could be a trap.

Remember last year's FOMO wave? So many people were driven by the expectation of "rate cuts," only to be repeatedly caught off guard. Now, even within the Fed, there's fighting — some want to wait for more data, others think inflation is still too high. This disagreement precisely indicates that the situation is much more complex than before. Variables like tariffs, AI productivity, and the labor market are intertwined, and no one can truly predict what will happen next.

On-chain opportunities often arise amid uncertainty, but that's also where the deepest traps lie. What does rising inflation risk mean? It means some will promote "inflation is good for Bitcoin," then spin stories to sell altcoins. The smartest approach now isn't chasing hot trends, but asking yourself: can this project's fundamentals withstand policy fluctuations? Is the team genuinely working, or just relying on stories to raise funds?

Experience from those who have been through it: when the market starts to stir due to uncertainty, that's precisely when you need to be most cautious.