Global Copper Supply Tightens: Which Nations Will Lead Production in 2024 and Beyond?

The world faced a critical copper supply crunch in 2024, with aging mines across major producing regions unable to keep pace with surging demand from the energy transition. According to the latest US Geological Survey data, global copper production reached 23 million metric tons in 2024, yet concerns persist about whether new mining capacity can meet the projected deficits ahead. This shortage has profound implications for industries ranging from renewable energy infrastructure to copper manufacturing companies globally, including emerging producers in regions like India scaling up their refining capabilities.

The Supply-Demand Imbalance Driving Copper to Record Heights

Copper hit an all-time high above $5 per pound in May 2024 for the first time, driven by the collision of tight supply dynamics and robust demand from electrification initiatives. However, growth has not been uniform. While demand from the energy transition continues to rise, traditional demand centers like China—historically the world’s largest copper consumer—remain sluggish as the economy seeks stimulus. Mining experts forecast that the next few years will bring supply deficits to the copper market, potentially providing significant upside for both the commodity’s price and mining company valuations.

Production Powerhouses: The Top 10 Copper-Producing Nations

1. Chile Solidifies Its Crown with 5.3 Million Metric Tons

Chile remains the world’s undisputed copper leader, generating 5.3 million metric tons in 2024—approximately 23 percent of total global output. The country’s mining strength is anchored by world-class operations from state-owned Codelco, Anglo American, Glencore, and Antofagasta. The jewel in Chile’s crown is BHP’s Escondida mine, the planet’s largest copper operation, producing roughly 2 million metric tons annually. BHP controls 57.5 percent of Escondida, with Rio Tinto holding 30 percent. BHP’s own 2024 share reached 1.13 million metric tons. Looking ahead, S&P Global projects Chile’s output will rebound to record levels in 2025, hitting 6 million metric tons as newly developed mines accelerate production.

2. Democratic Republic of Congo Surges to 3.3 Million Metric Tons

The DRC has emerged as a copper production force, reaching 3.3 million metric tons in 2024—more than 11 percent of global output. This represents substantial growth from 2.93 million metric tons in 2023, driven largely by Ivanhoe Mines’ Kamoa-Kakula project ramping up Phase 3 production. Operating as a joint venture with Zijin Mining Group, Kamoa-Kakula produced 437,061 metric tons in 2024, up from 393,551 metric tons in 2023. Ivanhoe has set guidance of 520,000 to 580,000 metric tons for 2025, signaling continued expansion.

3. Peru Produces 2.6 Million Metric Tons Despite Challenges

Peru generated 2.6 million metric tons of copper in 2024, down 160,000 metric tons from 2023. Production headwinds included a 3.7 percent decline at Freeport McMoRan’s Cerro Verde, Peru’s largest copper mine, which produced 1.94 million metric tons of copper concentrate in 2023. The company attributed South American production declines to lower volumes of stockpiled leach ore and maintenance-related milling rate reductions. Other major Peruvian operations include Anglo American’s Quellaveco and Southern Copper’s Tia Maria mine. Most of Peru’s copper exports flow to China and Japan, with South Korea and Germany as secondary markets.

4. China: Mining 1.8 Million Metric Tons While Dominating Refining

China produced 1.8 million metric tons of mined copper in 2024, slightly below 2023’s 1.82 million metric tons. Despite this modest decline from the 1.91 million metric tons peak in 2021, China exercises unparalleled dominance in refined copper production, processing 12 million metric tons in 2024—representing over 44 percent of global refined copper output, six times that of Chile. China also commands the world’s largest copper reserves at 190 million metric tons. Zijin Mining Group operates the Qulong copper-molybdenum-silver-gold mine in Tibet, which produced an estimated 366 million pounds of copper in 2024, up from 340 million pounds in 2023. Zijin now operates China’s largest copper mine after acquiring a 50.1 percent stake in Qulong’s owner in 2024 and working toward full consolidation.

5. Indonesia Rises to 1.1 Million Metric Tons, Overtaking Western Producers

Indonesia vaulted to fifth place with 1.1 million metric tons in 2024, surpassing both the United States and Russia. The nation’s production has accelerated impressively, jumping from 907,000 metric tons in 2023 and just 731,000 metric tons in 2021. Freeport McMoRan’s Grasberg complex anchors Indonesian output at 1.66 billion pounds in 2023. PT Amman Mineral’s Batu Hijau mine, which produced 542 million pounds of copper concentrate in 2023, is poised to reach 1.84 billion pounds in 2024 as Phase 7 processing of high-grade ore ramps up. In mid-2024, Amman Minerals commissioned a smelting facility capable of processing 900,000 metric tons of copper concentrate annually to produce 222,000 metric tons of copper cathodes.

6. United States Maintains 1.1 Million Metric Tons

The United States produced 1.1 million metric tons of copper in 2024, holding roughly flat from 2023 but marking a sharp pullback from 1.23 million metric tons in 2022. Arizona supplies 70 percent of domestic output, with 17 mines accounting for 99 percent of national production. Freeport McMoRan’s Morenci mine in Arizona—a joint venture with Sumitomo—is America’s largest copper operation, producing 700 million pounds of copper metal in 2024 with 12.63 million pounds of proven and probable reserves. Freeport’s Safford and Sierrita mines contributed 249 million metric tons and 165 million metric tons respectively.

7. Russia Ascends to 930,000 Metric Tons

Russia produced 930,000 metric tons of copper in 2024, a meaningful increase from 890,000 metric tons in 2023. The rise stems largely from Phase 1 production ramp-up at Udokan Copper’s Siberian mine, which produced approximately 135,000 metric tons despite experiencing multiple fires at year-end 2023. Phase 2 is slated to commence in 2028, potentially expanding Russian output to 450,000 metric tons.

8. Australia Reaches 800,000 Metric Tons

Australia generated 800,000 metric tons of copper in 2024, edging up from 778,000 metric tons in 2023. BHP’s Olympic Dam mine in South Australia set a 10-year production high at 216,000 metric tons. Glencore-operated Mount Isa complex in Queensland is among Australia’s largest producers but faces closure in the second half of 2025. Australia ranks second only to Peru in global copper reserves at 100 million metric tons, behind China’s 190 million metric tons.

9. Kazakhstan Enters the Elite with 740,000 Metric Tons

Kazakhstan produced 740,000 metric tons of copper in 2024, on par with 2023, yet newly entering the top 10 list by surpassing Mexico and Zambia. The nation’s production has expanded substantially from just 510,000 metric tons in 2021. Kazakhstan unveiled an ambitious National Development Plan in February 2024 targeting a 40 percent increase in mineral production by 2029 through expanded exploration, co-financing, and investment tax incentives. Private firm KAZ Minerals’ Aktogay mine produced 228,800 metric tons in 2024, down from 252,400 metric tons in 2023.

10. Mexico Concludes the List with 700,000 Metric Tons

Mexico rounded out the top 10 with 700,000 metric tons of copper in 2024, marginally above its 2023 output. Grupo Mexico’s Buenavista del Cobre mine in Sonora is the nation’s largest copper operation, producing 725 million pounds of copper concentrate and 193 million pounds of copper cathode in 2023. Grupo Mexico also operates La Caridad, Mexico’s second-largest mine, which generated 387,000 metric tons of copper concentrate and 51 million pounds of copper cathode in 2023.

Looking Ahead: Supply Deficits and Investment Implications

The convergence of aging mining infrastructure, constrained new capacity additions, and surging electrification demand sets the stage for multi-year copper deficits. This structural imbalance should continue supporting copper prices and bolstering mining company profitability. For investors tracking the copper supply chain—from mining production to copper manufacturing companies across emerging markets—monitoring these top 10 producing nations and their mine-by-mine output trajectories remains essential to understanding commodity market dynamics and identifying investment opportunities in the years ahead.