#降息预期 Seeing the news that the US labor cost growth has hit a four-year low, what comes to mind is the shadow of the big inflation wave in 2021. I still remember this time last year, every time I saw wage growth data, it felt like watching disaster news—companies frantically raising wages to retain talent, with wage growth soaring to historic highs, and the inflation spiral tightening as a result.

Now, the tide has turned 180 degrees. Layoff numbers have risen to the highest since early 2023, voluntary resignation rates have fallen back to 2020 levels, and young employees' salaries are beginning to decline. This is not just a data reversal but more like a clear cyclical signal—the labor market is shifting from overheating to cooling.

History tends to repeat this pattern. Before every rate cut, we first see a "softening" in the employment market—not a collapse, but a subtle cooling. This evolution was evident at the end of 2015 and mid-2019. The Federal Reserve needs to see inflation truly suppressed, and labor costs are a key chapter in this story.

The current question is: how will this shift from tightening to easing affect asset pricing? History tells me that the early stages of a rate cut cycle are often the most patience-testing—markets will repeatedly test the bottom before a real upward move. The key is to recognize where we are now.