#通货膨胀 Seeing Powell's latest speech, the first thought that flashed through my mind was—this story seems familiar, we've seen it in 2008, 2015, and 2020.

The rate cut cycle is over. This time, the Federal Reserve is very transparent, with the dot plot clearly indicating: only one rate cut next year, and only one the following year. In other words, the "preemptive rate cut" act has come to an end. Goldman Sachs's analysis hits the mark—labor market data must weaken further to be credible, but this threshold has been deliberately raised.

Having gone through several cycles, I am particularly sensitive to these turning points. Phrases like "slightly elevated inflation" and "upward inflation risks" translate into plain language as: the central bank is now more afraid of inflation making a comeback than of worsening employment. This is a shift in stance—from easing to watching and waiting.

History tells us that such turning points often mark the beginning of market re-pricing. Bitcoin's quick drop from 94,000 to 92,000 after breaking through 94,000 was essentially the market digesting this signal. The previous expectation of "just rate cuts" was shattered, replaced by a冷淡 attitude of "let the data speak."

The labor market is indeed cooling—unemployment rising, job growth slowing, demand clearly weakening. But the question is, how low does this "temperature" need to go for the Fed's hawks to be satisfied? No one knows for sure. And this uncertainty often leads the market to extreme volatility.

After so many years of observation, I’ve learned one thing: not every rate cut will push asset prices higher. The key is—what does the market expect, and what does it actually get? This time, expectations have been ruthlessly corrected by reality.