Platinum Spot Price 2025: What Market Experts Are Forecasting

Platinum is poised for a year of modest movements in 2025, with analysts expecting the precious metal to trade within a relatively narrow band. While supply continues to lag behind demand for the third consecutive year, abundant aboveground stockpiles may prevent significant price appreciation.

Supply Constraints Create Structural Support

The platinum market faces another deficit year in 2025, though the margin is widening. Total supply is projected to reach 7.32 million ounces, a mere 0.76 percent increase from 2024’s 7.27 million ounces. Against expected demand of 7.86 million ounces, this creates a shortfall of approximately 539,000 ounces.

Refined platinum production is anticipated to shrink by 1 percent to 5.55 million ounces. South Africa, a major producer, continues experiencing output declines. Northam Platinum Holdings’ leadership acknowledged the sector’s challenges in August, attributing the slowdown to a combination of depressed pricing and waning industrial demand as EV adoption accelerates.

Recycled platinum supplies, however, tell a different story. Secondary sources are expected to climb 12 percent to 1.77 million ounces—the highest level since 2021. This recovery in recycling partially offsets production challenges.

Demand Headwinds Outweigh Automotive Strength

Overall platinum demand is forecasted to remain essentially flat in 2025, declining marginally by 1 percent to 7.86 million ounces. The automotive sector, traditionally the primary demand driver, faces structural headwinds.

Electric vehicles now represent a critical wild card. S&P Global Mobility projects the global EV market share will surge to 16.7 percent in 2025 from 7 percent in 2023, representing 15.1 million units. These vehicles require no platinum or other platinum-group metals—a direct threat to traditional demand.

Catalytic converter applications will remain substantial, but substitution dynamics between platinum and palladium add complexity. Palladium currently commands a premium; parts manufacturers would need to see platinum prices significantly undercut palladium before retooling processes justify the switch.

Jewelry demand brightens the picture somewhat, with the industry projected to consume 1.98 million ounces in 2025, up 2 percent year-over-year. Investment demand is similarly positive, anticipated to expand 7 percent to 420,000 ounces.

Industrial applications, however, are deteriorating. Industrial demand is forecast to plummet 9 percent to 2.22 million ounces. Glass production—where platinum’s high melting point makes it essential for lining furnaces—represents the steepest decline. Platinum consumption in this sector is projected to contract a dramatic 57 percent to 286,000 ounces from 671,000 ounces in 2024. The surge in display furnace capacity seen in 2021 has already normalized.

Analyst Predictions Point to Range-Bound Trading

Market experts largely converge on a sideways view for platinum spot price dynamics through 2025. CPM Group’s Jeffrey Christian predicts the precious metal will languish in the US$900 to US$1,000 range, with downward pressure likely.

Heraeus Precious Metals, while acknowledging that supply deficits provide underlying support, similarly expects limited upside. The firm’s forecast spans US$850 to US$1,220, suggesting substantial trading range rather than directional conviction.

UBS Group takes a middle-ground approach, placing a midyear price target of US$1,100. The Swiss bank believes real assets will find support as the Federal Reserve continues rate reductions, though it cautions that platinum may underperform gold until higher interest rates stimulate industrial activity.

The Geopolitical Variable

While most forecasts suggest consolidation, geopolitical risks remain a potential catalyst. October 2024 demonstrated this dynamic, as Russian sanctions threats triggered sharp rallies in both platinum and palladium. With global tensions persisting and platinum’s supply-demand balance tightening, any escalation could rapidly overwhelm the relatively flat technical setup currently priced into markets.

The platinum market enters 2025 as a classic study in competing forces—structural supply deficits supporting floors, but demand weakness and rising aboveground inventories capping ceilings. Investors should monitor EV adoption rates, automotive sector health, and geopolitical developments as key price drivers ahead.