Soybean Complex Pulls Back as China Demand Signals Emerge

CommunityLurker · 2025-12-26T06:06:33+00:00

The soybean market faces significant weakness, with prices down across various contracts. While weekly export bookings increased, they lag behind last year's figures. China's purchases remain robust, influencing market dynamics, but traders are adopting a cautious bearish outlook.

CommunityLurker

2025-12-26 06:06:33

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The soybean market is experiencing notable weakness during mid-session trading, with prices retreating across the board. Most contracts declined between 6 to 9.5 cents, reflecting persistent selling pressure in the complex.

Price Action and Market Movement

The cmdtyView national average for cash soybeans has slipped to $10.53 1/4, representing a 9.5 cent decline. Supporting components showed similar weakness, with soymeal futures down $5.40 and soy oil futures losing 32 points. The January 26 soybean contract is trading at $11.26 3/4 (down 9 1/2 cents), while March 26 soybeans settled at $11.36 1/4 (down 8 1/4 cents). May 26 contracts are at $11.45 (down 7 1/2 cents).

Export Flows and Trade Data

Weekly soybean export bookings landed at 919,447 MT, positioning within the expected range of 0.6 to 1.6 MMT and marking a three-week high. However, year-over-year comparisons tell a different story—current bookings trail last year’s equivalent week by 8.6%. Soymeal transactions totaled 328,300 MT on the stronger side of forecasts, while bean oil experienced net reductions of 11,800 MT.

China’s Purchasing Impact

The USDA’s daily reporting revealed another 462,000 MT of soybeans moving to China on Wednesday, adding to the week’s cumulative total of 1.122 MMT. This brings known weekly sales to China to 1.812 MMT, underscoring the Asian buyer’s continued engagement despite broader market weakness.

Positioning Signals

Latest Commitment of Traders data from late September indicates managed money traders expanded their net short position in soybean futures and options by 9,410 contracts, elevating their bearish stance to 38,712 net short contracts as the month ended. This positioning shift suggests traders are increasingly cautious about near-term price direction.

The nearby cash contract remains under pressure at $10.53 1/4, down 9 1/2 cents, reflecting the broader downward momentum carrying through the midday session.

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