Will the market change after the 23 billion super settlement?

Over the past three months, whenever there has been a large options settlement, the market almost always gave a direction on the following Monday: a surge in September, a plunge in October, and a minor dip in November. Today’s end-of-year options settlement of 23 billion is the largest nominal amount in crypto history, which will have a significant impact on subsequent liquidity.
First, liquidity is released. The BTC or USDT collateral pledged by options sellers before will be unlocked after settlement, and the premium from unexercised options will also return to the available funds pool. This part of the funds usually does not leave the market but is rebalanced within it. Coupled with the year-end timing, many institutions will seize this opportunity to redeploy positions for 2026, making it more like the start of a new risk exposure cycle.
Meanwhile, options market makers will face the unwinding or adjustment of their spot or futures positions used for delta hedging after the positions mature. Based on current data, AI concludes that the overall market is net bearish; market makers hedge with shorts, and after settlement, covering these shorts could create buying pressure. However, this judgment involves many assumptions, and not all hedges will be closed; some will roll into longer-dated options, and some will be settled on the futures side. Even if a directional bias is present, it is likely already partially priced in. Therefore, this is only a validation, not a basis for bullishness.
More critically, the gamma structure. Currently, the 89k–90k range remains in a strongly positive gamma zone, and this positive gamma is almost entirely contributed by this options batch. Positive gamma will create a clear damping effect on prices, which is a key reason why prices have repeatedly touched 90k but have not been able to break through effectively. Today’s options expiration means market makers no longer need to hedge continuously, and the positive gamma will phase out, which is the so-called “covering effect” at 90k mentioned earlier. Whether a new positive gamma zone will form in longer-dated options depends on GEX updates after settlement.
When liquidity release, hedge unwinding, and gamma restrictions occur simultaneously, the market has the conditions to break out of a one-sided trend, but the direction is unknown and may not happen immediately. Historically, large options settlements in November, December, and October almost always occur on Fridays, with sideways movement over the weekend, and a direction given on Monday.
This time, it may continue to follow this rhythm: digesting the settlement first, then choosing a direction after the holiday ends. My personal bias is that the 85k to 90k range will determine the outcome, and the breakout after this settlement may not necessarily be a false breakout.