Home Depot Stays in Spotlight: Piper Sandler Holds Bullish Call as Institutions Adjust Positions

Piper Sandler is keeping a firm Overweight rating on Home Depot (NYSE:HD), signaling confidence in the retailer’s trajectory as of early December 2025. The investment thesis points to meaningful upside potential over the coming year.

Price Target and Growth Outlook

Analysts tracking HD project an average one-year price target of $408.98 per share, implying 18.45% upside from the December 5 closing price of $345.27. The forecast range spans from $303.00 on the conservative end to $488.25 on the bullish side, reflecting the varied perspectives across the analyst community. Looking ahead, Home Depot’s projected annual revenue is expected at 165,519 million, representing a slight 0.40% decline year-over-year. However, the non-GAAP EPS projection of 18.61 shows a 6.99% pullback from prior estimates, warranting attention as earnings dynamics continue to evolve.

Institutional Money on the Move

The options market is flashing a constructive signal, with HD’s put/call ratio standing at 0.87—below the 1.0 neutral threshold, suggesting bullish sentiment from options traders. On the broader institutional front, approximately 5,470 funds and institutions hold positions in Home Depot. This ownership base grew modestly last quarter, adding 32 new holders for a 0.59% increase. Notably, institutional shares actually declined by 3.06% to 803,079 thousand shares over the three-month period, even as the average portfolio allocation rose to 0.65% of all fund holdings—up 1.07% from the prior period.

Big Money Reshuffles

The Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund Investor Shares (VTSMX) remains one of the largest stakeholders, holding 31,984 thousand shares or 3.21% ownership. Despite an uptick in absolute share count (up 1.87% from prior filings), the fund trimmed its relative portfolio weighting in HD by 9.04%. Similarly, the Vanguard 500 Index Fund Investor Shares (VFINX) increased its stake to 28,212 thousand shares (2.83% of the company), adding 2.16% more shares quarter-over-quarter while paradoxically reducing portfolio allocation by 9.16%.

Geode Capital Management stands as another major holder with 23,413 thousand shares representing 2.35% ownership—a 1.85% increase in holdings paired with a 2.53% boost to relative portfolio positioning. Bank Of America’s 15,005 thousand share position (1.51% ownership) stayed relatively flat with only a 0.04% decrease, while the firm bumped up its portfolio weight by 2.40%. Charles Schwab Investment Management rounds out the top institutional holders with 14,358 thousand shares (1.44% ownership), down 1.47% in absolute terms but up 0.53% in portfolio allocation.

These nuanced moves—rising absolute shares yet falling portfolio weights for some index funds—underscore a market dynamic where institutions are maintaining or growing HD positions even as they rebalance broader portfolios. The divergence between share count changes and allocation shifts suggests institutional managers view Home Depot as a core holding worth preserving despite potential sector rotation pressures.