Fluor's Path Forward: Why Execution and NuScale Matter Most

The Diverging Story

Fluor Corporation, the 113-year-old Texas-based construction and engineering powerhouse, presents an intriguing paradox heading into 2026. While the company trades at NYSE: FLR and sits 60% below its 2008 all-time high of $101, its industry peers are soaring. Five other construction and engineering firms in the S&P MidCap 400 (NYSEMKT: MDY) have each climbed 20% to 120% this year, all hitting fresh record highs within the past month. Yet Fluor itself remains down 15% year-to-date, despite cutting its spring losses in half and experiencing dramatic 50% peak-to-trough swings over the past twelve months.

The disconnect speaks to a deeper question: Is Fluor a laggard or a turnaround waiting to happen?

The NuScale Financial Windfall: The Game-Changer Nobody Sees Coming

Perhaps the most overlooked catalyst is Fluor’s stake in NuScale Power (NYSE: SMR), a small modular reactor company riding the nuclear renaissance tied to AI data center demand. NuScale shares have exploded over 600% in just two years, and Fluor is monetizing decades of patient investment.

The numbers tell the story:

• October 2025: Fluor raised over $600 million from an initial share sale
• By February 2026: The company plans to liquidate its remaining 39% position, unlocking an estimated $800 million more
• The strategy: Most proceeds will fund share buybacks, strengthening the balance sheet

This financial injection represents more than a one-time bump. It’s a tool to fund operations while Fluor navigates its broader restructuring. However, treating it as a cure-all would be shortsighted—it’s best viewed as a strategic catalyst rather than the solution itself.

The Real Test: Can Fluor Deliver on Execution?

Beneath the surface lies the company’s Achilles’ heel: consistency. Q3 2025 marked the eighth consecutive quarter where revenue disappointed analysts, sliding 18% year-over-year to $3.4 billion. The silver lining came on the earnings front, where adjusted earnings per share jumped 33% to a better-than-expected $0.68—but surprises continue to define earnings day, and not always favorably.

Fluor’s business model centers on massive, multi-year construction and engineering contracts. The company’s recent Q3 results showcase both promise and concern:

Contract Pipeline Strength:

• Booked $3.3 billion in new contracts during Q3
• Total backlog now stands at $28.2 billion
• Critically, 82% of this work is reimbursable rather than fixed-price, meaning Fluor recovers actual costs without bearing overrun risk

This shift toward reimbursable contracts reflects a deliberate risk-reduction strategy that’s reshaping the company’s long-term trajectory. Unlike fixed-price agreements that punish cost overages, reimbursable models align incentives: Fluor’s clients absorb cost swings, not shareholders.

What Investors Should Monitor

The restructuring saga now unfolds across two fronts. First, Fluor must demonstrate that its reorganization plan actually sticks. Investors have little patience for repeated quarterly misses, even if the underlying business is improving. Second, the company must prove it can deploy the NuScale windfall wisely—not by making acquisitions that derail focus, but by bolstering financial flexibility while maintaining disciplined capital allocation.

The 113-year legacy of Fluor carries both weight and opportunity. The company is unwinding legacy risks, rebalancing its project mix toward safer models, and unlocking over a billion dollars in trapped value. But history shows that transformation requires flawless execution—something Fluor’s track record suggests remains uncertain.

For patient investors willing to accept near-term volatility, the next 12 to 24 months will be defining. Fluor doesn’t need to blow away expectations; it simply needs to stop disappointing them.