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Will the market change after the 23 billion super delivery?
In the past three months, whenever there has been a large options expiration, the market almost always gave a direction on the Monday after the delivery: a surge in September, a plunge in October, and a small dip in November. Today’s end-of-year options expiration of 23 billion is the largest nominal amount in crypto history, which will have a significant impact on subsequent liquidity.
First, liquidity is released. The BTC or USDT collateral pledged by options sellers before will be unlocked after expiration, and the premium from unexercised rights will also return to the available funds pool. This part of the funds usually does not leave the market but is rebalanced within it. Coupled with the year-end milestone, many institutions will seize the opportunity to redeploy positions for 2026, making it more like the start of a new risk exposure cycle.
Meanwhile, options market makers will face the unwinding or adjustment of their spot or futures positions used for delta hedging after the positions expire. Based on existing data, AI concludes that the overall market is net biased bearish; market makers hedge with short positions, and after delivery, covering these may create buying pressure. However, this judgment involves many assumptions, and not all hedges will be closed; some will roll into longer-dated options, and some will be settled on the futures side. Even if there is a definitive directional bias, it is likely already partially priced in. Therefore, this is only a validation, not a basis for bullish positions.
More critically, the gamma structure. Currently, the 89k–90k range remains in a very strong positive gamma zone, and this positive gamma is almost entirely contributed by this options expiration. Positive gamma will create a clear damping effect on prices, which is also a key reason why prices have repeatedly touched 90k but have not been able to break through effectively. Today’s expiration of these options means market makers no longer need to hedge continuously, and the positive gamma will phase out, which is the so-called “cover removal effect” at 90k. Whether a new positive gamma zone will form in longer-dated options still depends on the GEX update after delivery.
When liquidity release, hedge unwinding, and gamma restrictions occur simultaneously, the market has the conditions to break out of a one-sided trend, but the direction is unknown and may not happen immediately. Historically, large options expirations in November, October, and September almost always occur on Fridays, with sideways movement over the weekend, and a direction is given on Monday.
This time, it may continue to follow this rhythm: digesting the effects after expiration, then choosing a direction after the holiday ends. My personal bias is that the range between 85k and 90k will determine the outcome, and the breakout after this expiration may not necessarily be a false breakout. $GT ‌$ETH ‌$BTC ‌