Institutional Players Mixed on Radian Group: Here's What the Numbers Show

The Big Picture on RDN Holdings

As of late 2025, Radian Group (NYSE:RDN) finds itself in the spotlight with institutional investors taking a careful stance. According to recent filings, 750 funds and institutions maintain exposure to the mortgage insurance and financial services provider, though their collective positioning reveals a cautious approach. The average portfolio weight dedicated to RDN stands at 0.20% across all funds, up 5.13% from the previous quarter, while total institutional shares actually contracted by 3.18% to 158,184K shares—a divergence suggesting selective accumulation among larger positions.

Analyst Price Target Points to Modest Gains

Wall Street’s research teams have preserved their Market Perform rating on Radian Group stock. The consensus one-year price target sits at $39.78 per share, representing 7.57% upside from the December 5 closing level of $36.98. Price projections range from $35.35 on the conservative end to $47.25 for bulls, indicating meaningful disagreement among covering analysts. Meanwhile, the company faces revenue headwinds, with projections showing a 23.78% decline in annual revenues to 971 million dollars, though non-GAAP EPS is estimated at 2.66.

What Major Index Funds Are Actually Doing

The iShares Core S&P Small-Cap ETF (IJR) remains the largest holder with 6,618K shares representing 4.88% ownership—maintaining its position with no changes. LSV Asset Management, however, reduced its stake from 6,108K to 5,975K shares (a 2.22% decrease), simultaneously cutting its portfolio allocation by 7.20%. Charles Schwab Investment Management slightly increased its holding to 5,896K shares but paradoxically reduced portfolio weighting by 7.14%, reflecting a contrarian signal.

The Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund Investor Shares (VTSMX) trimmed holdings from 4,613K to 4,310K shares—a 7.05% cut with portfolio allocation slashed 9.22%. In contrast, the Schwab U.S. Dividend Equity ETF (SCHD) moved the opposite direction, building its position from 3,961K to 4,253K shares (up 6.86%) and increasing allocation by nearly 15%, suggesting dividend-focused investors see value despite the broader skepticism.

The Options Market Leans Bullish

One contrarian signal emerges from the put/call ratio of 0.39, which points toward bullish sentiment among options traders. This positioning divergence—where options markets show optimism while some major funds trim exposure—underscores the ongoing debate about Radian Group’s near-term direction and valuation amid housing market uncertainty.