The macroeconomic situation has indeed become a bit complicated recently.

First, let's talk about the RMB. After Christmas, the RMB weakened, which is quite painful for those involved in foreign trade settlements. The USDT to RMB exchange rate has also been adjusting accordingly. Investors holding BTC and USDT this year may have experienced this exchange rate pressure—dollar assets in hand shrinking and conversion costs rising.

What's even more interesting is the situation in the silver market. Spot silver broke through $73/ounce, hitting a new all-time high. But there's a detail behind this: the premium rate of domestic futures soared above 50%, primarily due to institutional positions being limited by a 10% cap. If this cap is lifted, market liquidity would improve significantly, and the premium space might be squeezed—meaning the window for arbitrage opportunities would be limited.

On the US side, GDP growth remains at 4.6%, and the Trump administration typically introduces stimulus policies before midterm elections. Market participants are privately discussing whether this easing expectation indicates that the bear market might have already bottomed out before the political cycle releases liquidity. The election-year "red envelope rain" effect has historically supported risk assets.