The keyword for the global market is only one: calm (not excited, not panicking, not cheap). Prices are waiting for a "new consensus input." First, from now until next Monday, the market will still be in a "default upward" trend, and its true intention may only be revealed around January 5. Second, the market is already writing the script for the Federal Reserve: Fed officials believe there may be 1 or 2 rate cuts next year, and the underlying message in the market is "no matter what you say, I'll assume 2 rate cuts," which allows risk assets to rest comfortably in the "comfort zone." Third, volatility has been pushed to an extremely low level. Watching volatility is like hearing a "bang," and the whole world becomes quiet, so quiet that you can hear the heartbeat of anxiety. The stock market volatility (VIX) approaching the lows of early December last year does not mean the market is at ease, but that sentiment has been flattened. The truly counterintuitive thing is the "silence" of bond volatility. If low VIX is just a "sentiment issue," then low bond volatility (returning to January 2020 levels) is a "logic issue." The interest rate market is assuming that the future path will be smooth, controllable, and free of policy accidents. But historical experience tells us that interest rate paths are never smooth; real shocks often come from the bond market, not the stock market. Historically, this combination usually does not end "gently." Think of a few very uncomfortable moments: · 2017: Long-term low VIX, triggering the February 2018 volatility event; · Late 2019: Extremely low bond volatility, leading to liquidity collapse in early 2020; · Summer 2023: Short-lived disappearance of interest rate volatility, causing out-of-control US Treasury yields in autumn. Volatility does not return gradually; it "appears suddenly." Once the bond market moves, the stock market is too late to react. The first two weeks of 2026 will be critical moments. People are always waiting for a "big event," but what we are more worried about are: an untimely economic data release, a failed Treasury auction, or an inappropriate speech from the Fed. These are not black swans, but under low-volatility structures, they will be treated as black swans. This is not a moment suitable for predicting directions but a moment to respect volatility.