Copper Set for Gain Staging Through 2026: Three Mining Leaders to Watch

As copper enters 2026, the red metal is positioning itself for substantial gain staging, underpinned by tightening global supplies and accelerating demand across multiple industries. The convergence of traditional industrial consumption, energy transition investments, and the digital infrastructure boom creates a compelling backdrop for copper miners. Three companies—BHP Group Limited, Southern Copper Corporation, and Teck Resources Limited—have emerged as prime candidates to capitalize on this structural upswing and deliver long-term value.

The Copper Market in 2025: A Year of Gains and Rising Expectations

Copper has delivered impressive performance in 2025, trading between $4.01 and $5.96 per pound, with current levels hovering around $5.47. Year-to-date, the metal has climbed roughly 35.8%, marking the strongest performance since 2009. The momentum reflects a tightening market where demand consistently outpaces available supply.

Key drivers supporting this gain staging include:

China’s robust consumption of copper in electric vehicles and infrastructure projects remains a cornerstone of demand. Simultaneously, the U.S. has witnessed heightened copper demand driven by artificial intelligence infrastructure buildout and data center expansions. Concerns about supply disruptions at major mining operations—including Quebrada Blanca, Grasberg, and Constancia—have further tightened spot availability. The U.S. Geological Survey’s designation of copper as a critical mineral in 2025 has underscored its strategic importance, signaling potential policy support and faster project permitting.

Analysts widely expect this gain staging momentum to extend into 2026, with supply constraints and robust demand dynamics maintaining upward price pressure.

Why Copper Demand Is Poised to Surge

Copper ranks as the third most consumed industrial metal globally and serves as an economic bellwether across construction, transportation, electrical systems, and industrial machinery. Over the past 50 years, copper consumption has nearly quadrupled, yet the real growth story lies ahead.

The energy transition represents a pivotal shift. Electric vehicles require substantially more copper than traditional combustion engines, while renewable energy systems, power grids, and EV charging networks are heavily copper-dependent. Data center expansion to support AI workloads presents another major growth vector. According to the International Energy Agency, clean energy technologies are projected to account for 36% of global copper demand by 2040, up from 24% in 2021. This combination of traditional demand, decarbonization efforts, and digital expansion will push copper requirements to unprecedented levels.

However, miners face significant headwinds. Declining ore grades, extended timelines to bring new mines online, rising capital costs, and growing environmental scrutiny—particularly in Peru—have constrained supply growth. This widening gap between demand and supply will remain the primary driver of structurally higher copper prices.

Three Copper Stocks Positioned for Outperformance

BHP Group: Diversified Strength with Copper as Core Growth Engine

BHP Group Limited has strategically elevated copper to comprise 39% of EBITDA, the highest exposure among diversified miners. Strong cash generation has enabled the company to reduce long-term debt and bolster financial flexibility, while technology adoption across its value chain continues to drive operational efficiency and margin expansion.

BHP’s production pipeline is robust. The company targets average copper output of 1.4 million tons per annum from its Chilean Escondida and Pampa Norte assets through the 2030s. In South Australia, BHP is developing copper capacity exceeding 500,000 tons annually, with potential to reach 650,000 tons longer term. Optimization initiatives at Escondida are expected to generate an additional 400,000 tons of cumulative production over fiscal 2027-2031. Additionally, BHP holds a 45% stake in the Resolution Copper Project in the United States, one of the world’s largest undeveloped copper assets. The company has also formed a 50-50 joint venture, Vicuña Corp., with Lundin Mining to develop the Josemaria and Filo del Sol deposits in Argentina and Chile—one of the largest copper discoveries of the past three decades.

BHP carries a long-term earnings growth estimate of 6.94%, with consensus forecasts indicating 26% year-over-year growth for fiscal 2026 and 2.7% growth for 2027. BHP shares have appreciated 28.5% over the past six months.

Southern Copper: Largest Reserve Base with Decade-Long Capital Push

Southern Copper Corporation operates the industry’s largest copper reserve base and controls world-class assets in investment-grade jurisdictions—Mexico and Peru. SCCO’s $15+ billion capital program for this decade reflects deep commitment to growth, with approximately $10.3 billion earmarked for Peru, the world’s second-largest copper producer.

Peru-focused projects will drive substantial production expansion. The Tía María project is slated to produce 120,000 tons of copper annually. Los Chancas, expected to commence operations in 2030-2031, will generate 130,000 tons of copper and 7,500 tons of molybdenum annually. Michiquillay will emerge as one of Peru’s largest copper mines, producing 225,000 tons of copper per year alongside molybdenum, gold, and silver, with a mine life exceeding 25 years.

SCCO’s relentless focus on low-cost production and growth investments positions the company to deliver sustained outperformance. Earnings consensus estimates have strengthened over the past 60 days, forecasting 21.7% year-over-year growth for 2025 and 16.4% growth for 2026. The company’s long-term earnings growth estimate stands at 20.6%. SCCO shares have surged 52% over the past six months and currently command a top-tier analyst rating.

Teck Resources: Merger-Driven Scale and Enhanced Synergy Profile

Teck Resources Limited has entered into a transformative merger agreement with Anglo American to create Anglo Teck, recently approved by British Columbia’s Supreme Court. The combined entity will achieve more than 70% copper exposure and rank among the world’s top five copper producers. The portfolio will include six world-class copper assets plus premium iron ore and zinc operations.

Combined annual copper production will reach 1.2 million tons and grow to 1.35 million tons by 2027, representing 10% expansion. The merger is expected to generate $800 million in annual pre-tax synergies, with approximately 80% achievable within two years through economies of scale and operational optimization. An additional $1.4 billion in EBITDA synergies from 2030-2049 will emerge through integrated optimization of adjacent Collahuasi and Quebrada Blanca assets.

Teck’s earnings consensus estimates project 73.5% year-over-year growth for fiscal 2025 and 13.6% growth for 2026, reflecting the deal’s transformative potential. The company carries a long-term earnings growth estimate of 37.8%. TECK shares are positioned as a compelling growth play amid market consolidation trends in the copper industry.

The Bottom Line

Copper’s gain staging through 2026 offers substantial opportunity for investors seeking exposure to both cyclical strength and long-term structural demand drivers. BHP Group, Southern Copper Corporation, and Teck Resources each offer distinct pathways to participate in this secular trend, whether through BHP’s operational excellence and diverse geography, SCCO’s aggressive production expansion, or TECK’s merger-driven synergies. As supply remains constrained and demand accelerates, these three companies stand positioned to deliver compelling shareholder returns.