Should You Buy Popular Stock Following an Insider's Share Disposition?

Investment thesis: The case for buying shares despite insider selling

Popular, Inc. (NASDAQ:BPOP) presents an attractive buying opportunity even as a board member recently reduced his stake. While insider transactions often warrant scrutiny, the fundamentals tell a different story here. The stock trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 10, which is historically low for this regional banking institution, and Wall Street analysts maintain a consensus price target of $143.11—suggesting meaningful upside potential from current levels.

The insider transaction: What happened and what it means

On November 24, 2025, Richard L. Carrion, a director at Popular, sold 25,000 shares in an open-market transaction valued at approximately $2.8 million. The transaction was disclosed via SEC Form 4 filing and executed at a weighted average price of $113.50 per share.

Understanding the scale of this sale: The disposition represented 11.47% of Carrion’s direct holdings, reducing his stake from 218,020 shares to 193,020 shares. However, this context matters—Carrion maintained substantial economic exposure post-transaction, retaining approximately $21.8 million in direct holdings plus an additional 74,467 shares held indirectly. This continued significant ownership suggests he remains confident in the company’s direction.

Historical perspective: Over the preceding two years, this was Carrion’s only reported open-market sale, making it an isolated event rather than a pattern of continuous liquidation.

Why this sale doesn’t signal investor concern

Carrion’s timing warrants examination. The stock hit a 52-week high of $129.32 in September 2025 before moderating to $112.86 by November 24. In this context, the sale appears strategically timed to harvest gains rather than indicate deteriorating confidence—a distinction that carries weight for investors evaluating the action.

Company fundamentals remain robust

Popular operates as a regional banking powerhouse across Puerto Rico, the United States, and the British Virgin Islands. Recent financial performance validates continued investment:

• Net interest income surged to $646.5 million in Q3, up from $572.5 million in the prior-year period
• Net income reached $211.3 million, a 36% increase from $155.3 million year-over-year
• Annual revenue (TTM): $2.98 billion
• Net income (TTM): $775.66 million
• Dividend yield: 2.68%
• One-year total return: 18.69%

These metrics reflect a financial institution firing on all cylinders, with improving profitability and expanding margins—the hallmarks of a sound business generating shareholder value.

Valuation backdrop: An overlooked opportunity

The current valuation presents a compelling setup for buy shares strategically. At a P/E multiple of 10, Popular trades below its historical average for much of 2025, despite posting stronger earnings. This disconnect between improving fundamentals and stagnating valuation often precedes rallies as the market reprices the stock.

The bottom line

Richard Carrion’s share sale, while noteworthy in scale, fails to constitute a warning signal for existing or prospective shareholders. His retained stake of 267,487 total shares (193,020 direct plus 74,467 indirect) demonstrates confidence. Popular’s accelerating financial performance, attractive valuation, and analyst optimism create a window for investors to buy shares at a reasonable entry point before the market fully appreciates the company’s improving trajectory.