ORLY stock up 2300% in 15 years? The long-term profit opportunity behind short-term fluctuations

Everyone knows that O’Reilly Automotive (ORLY) did a 15:1 stock split this summer, but this move doesn’t really change much — your total account value remains the same before and after the split. What truly matters is how much profit long-term holders have made from ORLY.

Investors who bought for one year: Slightly outperforming the market

If you bought ORLY just last year, your unrealized gain is 19.2%, which looks pretty good. The stock surged again in July after the split, reaching nearly a 30% increase at one point. But by October, it started to pull back, giving back much of those gains.

Comparing to the market: the S&P 500 index gained only 12.9% over the past year, so ORLY still outperformed by 6.3 percentage points. But this is why Warren Buffett emphasizes long-term investing — what does a one-year performance really tell us?

Investors who bought for three years: Average performance

Looking at three-year holders, ORLY has increased by 75.5%, while the S&P 500 rose by 68.8%, a margin of only 6.7 percentage points. Interestingly, during these three years, ORLY sometimes outperformed the market, sometimes lagged behind. In 2024, it was mostly under pressure from the broader market, only turning around in 2025. This steady, uneventful performance is clearly not the story of “big gains.”

Investors who bought for five years: The real story

But this is where ORLY truly shines — over longer timeframes, the gap widens. A five-year holder’s return is 229%, compared to just 86% for the S&P 500 during the same period, giving ORLY an extra 143 percentage points.

Looking further back, ten-year holders have already earned a 473% return. Compared to the 229% market gain, this is what we call “market crushing.” Going even further back, 15-year holders have achieved an astonishing 2300% return — this is the power of compound interest.

Why can ORLY do this?

This case perfectly illustrates what a “buy and hold” strategy means. Some investors bought just before the split and sold in August, earning about 12%. But the real winners are those who bought and forgot, only realizing their gains after 15 years.

Short-term trading can make quick money, but long-term compounding is the real secret to wealth. ORLY’s performance shows all investors: don’t focus on daily ups and downs; give your holdings enough time.