#2025Gate年度账单 The RMB is returning to the "6 Era," but the crypto market has experienced a "Fake Christmas": where should your money go?

After nearly a month of silence, the foreign exchange market finally responded with a sharp sound.

Today, the offshore RMB exchange rate broke through the 7.0 mark, officially returning to the "6 Era," reaching a 15-month high. Meanwhile, onshore RMB is also on the brink, just one last barrier away from breaking 7.

However, while RMB investors celebrate with a toast, the crypto world is in gloom. This Christmas, BTC plummeted 30% from its October high of $125,000 to $87,000, and Ethereum lost the $3,000 level, shattering the anticipated "Christmas rally." With the dollar weakening and liquidity playing the same game, why have RMB and Bitcoin diverged so dramatically?

RMB's Three Strong Bottom Cards

First Card: The Epic Foreign Exchange Settlement Wave "Super Doubling"

As the year-end approaches, export companies are busy closing accounts and issuing bonuses, needing to convert USD to RMB. This year is special — China's trade surplus in the first 11 months hit a historic $1 trillion, leaving companies with an excess of USD. Seeing the RMB rally, they rush to settle foreign exchange, fearing missing out and creating a positive feedback loop of "rising more, settling more."

Second Card: The USD "Falls from Grace"

In 2025, the Fed will cut interest rates three times, causing the dollar index to plunge nearly 10% for the year, the largest drop in 8 years. Trump’s tariff wars and Moody’s downgrading the US credit rating have prompted global capital to seek new "safe havens." This tilt causes the RMB to appreciate passively.

Third Card: China's "Hardcore" Economic Performance

The World Bank and IMF have both raised China's economic growth forecasts. In the first 11 months, exports of integrated circuits grew by 25.6%, and automobile exports increased by 17.6%. Our "trump card" has shifted from clothing and toys to chips and new energy vehicles. The export quality has soared, providing the strongest backing for the RMB.

The "Christmas Oddity" in the Crypto Market: Liquidity Crisis

Why did the same script lead to a failure for Bitcoin?

The answer is simple: RMB has stolen the "story" that belonged to cryptocurrencies. As RMB becomes the preferred safe haven in emerging markets and Chinese assets are revalued, global speculative capital now has a safer, more compliant alternative. The Fed’s balance sheet reduction drains liquidity, and the remaining "water" flows preferentially into RMB assets rather than highly volatile cryptocurrencies.

More brutally, Bitcoin’s proud "digital gold" narrative has completely failed this Christmas. When real gold hit $4,500 per ounce, soaring 70% this year, Bitcoin moved in the opposite direction. Institutional investors are voting with their feet: for safety, they choose gold; for speculation, they prefer RMB; cryptocurrencies have become a "pariah" caught between two worlds.

Capital Migration: Who Will Laugh? Who Will Cry?

The RMB’s strong appreciation is reshaping the wealth landscape of Chinese investors:

Those who will laugh:

• A-share investors: Data shows that since 2017, the RMB exchange rate has been highly positively correlated with A-shares. Goldman Sachs notes that a 0.1 appreciation in the exchange rate could boost stock valuations by 3%-5%. A year-end rally is expected.

• Importers: Costs in energy, aviation, paper industries have significantly decreased; internet and shipping companies holding USD debt face reduced financial pressure.

• Cross-border shoppers and students abroad: Foreign spending gets a 10% discount — a true Christmas deal.

Those who will cry:

• Traditional exporters: Industries like textiles, home appliances, and furniture face weakened price competitiveness.

• USD deposit speculators: Those who rushed to buy USD at the start of the year may end up losing after exchange rate losses.

• Crypto holders: Watching RMB assets celebrate while their BTC shrinks by 30%, facing a double blow.

2026 Dual-Track Forecast: RMB Moderately Appreciates, Crypto Regulation Bull Market?

Major international investment banks unanimously predict the dollar will remain weak. However, the policy tone of "maintaining basic stability" is clear, with "6.8" likely a key observation point, and large swings unlikely. Appreciation will be gradual and moderate, creating a favorable environment for a slow bull in A-shares.

For cryptocurrencies, 2026 may mark the "Regulatory Bull Market" start. Delphi Digital predicts BTC will hit new all-time highs, "strongly rebounding like a rubber band." But more attention should be paid to Cathy Yoon’s view: "The real impact will come from the implementation of stablecoin legislation — regulation, disclosure, and payment system integration." This means projects that embrace regulation and solve liquidity inflow channels will stand out in the next bull run.

Where should your money go?

Understand this logic, and the answer becomes clear:

Short-term (3-6 months): Prioritize RMB assets. Use the appreciation window to increase holdings in core A-shares and Hong Kong tech giants. Leading USD debt sectors may see valuation recovery.

Medium-term (6-12 months): Watch for crypto regulation turning points. After the stablecoin legislation is enacted, compliant CEXs and public chains may attract institutional funds. Now is not the time to bottom-fish, but research should begin.

Long-term (over 1 year): Two main paths run parallel. RMB internationalization will lead to asset revaluation; the narrative of cryptocurrencies as "digital gold" may need resetting, but the value capture of blockchain technology has just begun.

Don’t treat exchange rates with a speculative mindset, nor rely on faith to support crypto investments. The trend has shifted — embrace industry upgrades, beware of liquidity exhaustion, and plan assets with a strategic mindset to stand firm in this wealth migration.

What is your choice?

• Will you increase RMB assets before 6.8, or wait for the crypto market to bottom?

• Do you prefer the A-share year-end rally or the 2026 "Crypto Regulation Bull"?

• Exporters, have you started settling foreign exchange? Or are you waiting for higher levels?

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