The Unusual Bitcoin-Equity Split That Hasn't Occurred Since 2014 — What Wall Street Expects Next

A Rare Market Divergence Unfolds

For the first time in over a decade, markets are sending conflicting signals. The S&P 500 has climbed 15% year-to-date, while Bitcoin has retreated 5%, according to Bloomberg data. This divergence marks the first instance since 2014 when U.S. equities posted gains while the world’s largest cryptocurrency moved into negative territory. History offers a clue about what may follow: in 2015, after the S&P 500 traded sideways, Bitcoin surged 38% — a significant outperformance that caught many investors off guard.

Current Bitcoin pricing reflects this uncertainty. At $88.66K, the cryptocurrency sits roughly 10.73% lower on a one-year basis, creating what some analysts view as a potential inflection point.

Bull Case: Major Forecasts and Long-Term Targets

Despite near-term headwinds, several prominent Wall Street voices remain constructive. Geoff Kendrick at Standard Chartered and Gautam Chhugani at Bernstein have issued Bitcoin price targets for 2026, each forecasting the asset will reach $150,000. While both estimates represent downward revisions from previous calls due to current market conditions, they imply 74% upside potential from today’s levels.

The bullish case extends well beyond 2026. Kendrick projects Bitcoin could trade at $500,000 by 2030 (480% upside), while Chhugani sees the coin reaching $1 million by 2033 (1,060% upside). These long-dated targets rest on the theory that demand will accelerate as institutional capital reallocates and corporations integrate digital assets into treasury management.

The Institutional Adoption Narrative

The infrastructure supporting this thesis has improved considerably. Spot Bitcoin ETFs have fundamentally altered the accessibility equation. By eliminating friction points — managing multiple exchange accounts, paying high fees, navigating custody complications — these vehicles allow mainstream investors to gain Bitcoin exposure through ordinary brokerage accounts.

The results are visible in the data. The iShares Bitcoin Trust, the largest spot Bitcoin ETF by assets, saw the number of large asset managers holding positions surge 150% over the past year. Separately, Bitcoin holdings among publicly-listed and privately-held corporations expanded 60%. These movements suggest the digital asset class is transitioning from a speculative playground to a legitimate portfolio diversifier.

Regulatory clarity has accelerated this shift. The U.S. House of Representatives passed the Clarity Act in July, establishing clearer jurisdictional rules for digital assets, with Senate approval expected in 2026. The GENIUS Act, also passed in July, introduced a formal regulatory framework for stablecoins. While not Bitcoin-specific, these legislative steps signal mainstream acceptance and should encourage further institutional participation.

The Historical Headwind: Halving Cycles and Bear Market Patterns

Yet history presents a complicating factor. Bitcoin has consistently peaked 12 to 18 months following each halving event, then subsequently declined over the next 12-18 month window before gradually recovering. The April 2024 halving fits this pattern precisely: Bitcoin peaked near $126,000 in October 2025, nearly 18 months later. Should the cycle persist, 2026 could see prices drift lower through late in the year or into early 2027, with recovery accelerating as the fifth halving approaches mid-2028.

There’s additional pressure on near-term sentiment. Bitcoin entered bear market territory (down 20% from prior peaks) in November 2025 — the seventh such occurrence since 2021. Following the previous six bear market entries, Bitcoin posted a median return of 0% over the subsequent 12 months, suggesting lackluster performance ahead.

The Contradiction Beneath the Surface

A tension exists between Wall Street’s optimistic 2026 forecasts and what historical patterns suggest. The analyst calls rely heavily on institutional adoption via spot ETFs driving sustained demand. The cyclical history, by contrast, implies 2026 may be a year of consolidation rather than acceleration.

Investors must reconcile these narratives carefully. While certain professionals believe Bitcoin will reach $150,000 next year, the precedent suggests dormancy is equally plausible. For those uncomfortable weathering volatility or holding positions through multiple market cycles, the risk-reward profile warrants serious consideration before committing capital.