Recently, the market has received two completely opposite signals, one exciting enough, the other concerning enough. When these two events are viewed together, the overall situation becomes quite intriguing.

Let's start with on-chain data. During Christmas, large transfers between exchanges and wallet addresses revealed a startling fact — over the past week, Ethereum whales have been buying aggressively. Data shows these major holders have collectively scooped up 220,000 ETH, equivalent to about $660 million. This is not market rumor, but recorded on the blockchain in black and white.

From a traditional market perspective, this level of sustained buying is usually seen as a "smart money" deployment signal. The big players are voting with their actions, indicating they find the current position attractive and have expectations for the future trend. From a news perspective, this is definitely a strong bullish signal.

The question is, why hasn't such massive buying triggered a straight-up price surge? This precisely reflects the complexity of today's market. Imagine a large cargo ship quietly adjusting its ballast, adding weight to stabilize the hull, while small boats on the surface are still rocking in the waves. The institutional investors' building positions are firm, but retail investors' wait-and-see attitude and short-term selling pressure are still opposing this upward force. Restoring overall market confidence takes time; the buying from a few big players alone is not enough to ignite widespread enthusiasm.

Turning to the actual trend. As of the latest data, ETH price has been fluctuating around $2,956. Technical resistance levels are very clear: recent strong resistance is at $2,980, and breaking above that would face heavy pressure at $3,100. If these hurdles cannot be effectively overcome, it will be difficult for the price to make significant breakthroughs in the short term.