#美联储回购协议计划 Will there be a mini bull market in 2026? This question needs to be viewed from two perspectives.

Based on historical candlestick patterns, 2026 is most likely to continue the bear trend. Looking at the declines over four-year cycles in previous years: 2014 dropped 58% (to clear the 2013 bubble), 2018 dropped 73% (to stabilize ICO chaos), 2022 dropped 64% (to digest DeFi madness). Following this pattern downward, BTC is likely to fall to around $40,000-$50,000, and altcoins will be in a life-or-death situation.

However, the market has already quietly changed.

Now, a large number of institutions are entering, and tools like ETFs are available. This is an irreversible structural shift. Heavyweight funds like pension funds and sovereign wealth funds will automatically dollar-cost average at key price levels, and declines won't stop them. So, $BTC is unlikely to experience a cliff-like crash like in 2022—this is the power of institutional influence.

The macro environment is also vastly different. Both 2018 and 2022 were in tightening cycles with rate hikes and balance sheet reductions, which can choke liquidity. 2026 will be a completely different story. U.S. interest expenses are expected to explode, likely surpassing defense spending, and the Treasury must maintain liquidity easing to roll over debt. Fiat currency will continue to be printed at 5%-7% annually, with no end in sight.

The hedging logic of BTC is fundamentally not just about opposing centralization; the core is fighting inflation. This has become the consensus foundation for a slow or even prolonged bull market.

There are also new developments on the application layer. In 2018 and 2022, besides speculation and BTC, there were no real applications in the crypto ecosystem. Now? Products like PumpFun and Hyperliquid have broken out of the circle, stablecoins are integrating with mainstream payments, and prediction markets are taking off. If a killer app at TikTok or ChatGPT level emerges, hundreds of millions of new users and capital inflows would be no surprise.

From a probabilistic perspective:

50% chance — soft landing + slow bull cycle, holding assets like BTC, ETH, SOL, BNB without stop-loss, with $BTC oscillating between $80,000 and $140,000.

20% chance — breaking the four-year cycle and entering a super bull run.

30% chance — repeating history and a full collapse.

For institutions, 2026 is a good entry point at a low level. For retail investors? Especially those who chased after 100x coins, it’s best to treat it as a bear market defense. $BTC $ETH