Corn Surges Amid USDA Report Revisions: Tuesday Market Momentum Builds

Corn futures experienced significant strength on Tuesday morning, with the market rallying on the back of a supportive USDA report that reshaped supply expectations. Across most contract months, values climbed between 4 to 5 cents, reflecting traders’ response to tighter near-term availability.

The centerpiece driving this week’s momentum came from the USDA’s monthly commodity outlook, which revealed a substantial 125 million bushel reduction in domestic ending stocks. With final inventory levels now projected at 2.029 billion bushels—meaningfully below market estimates—the revision underscored the tightening fundamental picture. The entire adjustment flowed through to the export category, signaling robust international demand absorption.

Price Action and Speculative Positioning

Dec 25 Corn futures closed at $4.40 3/4, advancing 4 1/2 cents, while the nearby cash market settled at $4.03 1/2 on the same gain. Forward contracts also participated in the upward move, with Mar 26 Corn rising 4 1/4 cents to $4.48 and May 26 Corn climbing the same amount to $4.55 1/2. CmdtyView’s national cash price benchmark reflected this strength, posting a 4 1/2 cent increase to $4.03 1/2.

Recent positioning data from the CFTC showed speculative traders actively reducing bearish exposure. The week ending November 4 saw corn shorts trimmed by 17,990 contracts, bringing net short holdings to 71,516—suggesting some capitulation among those positioned for price declines.

Global Supply Dynamics Shift

On the international stage, world ending stocks for the 2025/26 season are now estimated at 279.15 MMT, representing a 2.19 MMT decline from the prior month’s projection. Argentina emerged as a notable factor in this revision, accounting for substantial carryover increases of 1.71 MMT. The US reductions more than offset that buildup, tightening the global picture.

Ukraine’s production outlook was trimmed by 3 MMT, further constraining available supply. Meanwhile, South Korea’s grain trade remained active, with an importer purchasing 132,000 MT of corn in an overnight tender, though origin details weren’t disclosed.

Export Markets React

Brazil’s December export allocation is now tracking at 6.3 MMT according to ANEC estimates—a 1.31 MMT jump from the previous week’s projection and 2.03 MMT above last December’s shipments. Argentina, seeking to support its export competitiveness, reduced the corn export tax by 1 percentage point to 8.5%, signaling efforts to encourage outbound sales.

These supply tightenings and policy adjustments provided the fundamental foundation for Tuesday’s rally, as market participants reassessed corn’s tighter global balance.