Cotton Futures Advance Modestly Amid Mixed Market Signals

ZKProofster · 2025-12-26T04:17:10+00:00

The cotton market showed cautious optimism with slight price increases despite disappointing export sales and lower international prices. While total commitments fell significantly, shipment activity remained strong, indicating mixed signals in the cotton industry.

ZKProofster

2025-12-26 04:17:10

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The cotton price landscape showed restrained optimism Thursday as front-month contracts posted 8-point advances at the settlement. However, broader market indicators painted a more complicated picture for this crucial commodity.

Export Performance Remains Under Pressure

Weekly export sales data revealed 135,886 running bales changed hands during the week ending November 27, marking a four-week low point. This sluggish performance reflects ongoing market caution, though shipment activity offered some encouragement at 122,094 running bales—the strongest weekly rate in three weeks.

The export commitment situation underscores deeper challenges. Total commitments stand at 5.72 million running bales, representing a 16.53% decline compared to the equivalent period in the prior year. Despite this softness in new sales, the actual delivery pipeline has demonstrated relative strength, with shipments running 7.61% ahead of last year’s pace at 2.3 million running bales for the marketing year to date.

Physical Market Activity and International Pricing

The Seam’s Thursday online auction recorded sales of 14,934 bales, with the weighted average cotton price coming to 60.84 cents per pound. Meanwhile, the Cotlook A Index contracted 90 points on December 17, settling at 73.00 cents—indicating softening international reference pricing.

Notably, the Adjusted World Price was trimmed this afternoon to 49.99 cents per pound, representing a significant 40-point markdown from the previous week. This adjustment reflects the challenging global supply-demand dynamics facing cotton producers and exporters.

Storage and Futures Performance

ICE certified cotton stocks remained flat on December 17, holding steady at 12,396 bales. Despite this stability in certified inventory, the cotton price structure across the curve exhibited modest resilience.

Front-month contracts closed with uniform advances: Mar 26 Cotton finished at 63.51 (up 8 points), May 26 Cotton settled at 64.61 (up 8 points), and Jul 26 Cotton ended at 65.66 (up 8 points). This parallel strength across the forward months suggests some stabilization despite the headwinds evident in export and international pricing data.

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