The Bird Flu Crisis Behind Record-Breaking Egg Prices — What Comes Next?

The Current Egg Price Shock

Walking down the grocery store aisle these days feels like a wake-up call: egg sections are emptying fast, and when you do find a carton, the sticker price is shocking. Dozens of eggs now average $4.16 across the United States in recent weeks, representing a staggering 37% year-over-year increase. Meanwhile, the broader grocery market has only seen prices rise by roughly 1.8% in the same timeframe, making eggs the real inflation outlier.

What’s even more striking is the wholesale market. Large-scale suppliers are paying $6.55 per dozen on the open market — a dramatic shift from just three years ago when wholesale eggs sold for under a dollar per dozen. Industry analysts project further deterioration, with forecasts indicating another 20% price jump possible before year’s end.

Understanding the Root Cause: Bird Flu’s Devastating Impact

The culprit behind this unprecedented spike isn’t complicated: the bird flu. The H5N1 strain has ravaged U.S. poultry farms relentlessly, creating supply shortages that ripple directly to consumer prices. Since January 2022, this outbreak has wiped out more than 145 million birds across the country, according to federal disease monitoring agencies.

The mechanics are brutal. When a single bird tests positive for avian influenza, entire farming operations must cull their flocks — a precaution that devastates supply. Some farmers have been forced through this catastrophic cycle multiple times, each culling event eliminating weeks or months of production capacity that’s difficult to quickly rebuild.

Recent months have proven particularly severe. Analysis of disease tracking data shows that over 30 million egg-laying chickens have been eliminated since November alone, creating acute shortages that have triggered purchase limits in numerous grocery chains across different states.

How This Compares to Past Crises

History offers perspective. During the 2015 bird flu outbreak, roughly 50 million poultry were lost, and egg prices climbed from approximately $2 to $3 per dozen within months. However, by spring 2016, prices normalized and remained subdued for nearly a decade.

The current outbreak dwarfs that previous crisis by multiple factors — both in scope and duration. The virus shows no signs of abating, making recovery timelines increasingly uncertain.

What’s Ahead?

Energy policy changes and supply chain optimization may eventually stabilize food prices broadly, but the egg market faces unique challenges tied directly to disease control. Until poultry flocks recover their previous production capacity — a process that requires both time and animal health improvements — shoppers should expect continued pressure on prices at checkout counters.

The seasonal winter demand that typically drives egg prices higher has only compounded this underlying shortage, creating what experts describe as a perfect storm for consumer spending on this essential food staple.