Quantum Computing Boom Faces Reckoning: IonQ, Rigetti, D-Wave at a Crossroads Before 2026

The rally has been stunning. Over the past year, Rigetti Computing (NASDAQ: RGTI) exploded 545%, while D-Wave Quantum (NYSE: QBTS) jumped 458% and IonQ (NYSE: IONQ) climbed 43%. Quantum Computing Inc. (NASDAQ: QUBT) surged 67%, leaving the Nasdaq Composite’s modest 19% gain in the dust. Yet beneath this euphoria lies a pattern that history repeats with uncomfortable regularity.

The Trillion-Dollar Mirage

Why the frenzy? The numbers look intoxicating. Analysts peg quantum computing’s addressable market at roughly $1 trillion by 2035, with Boston Consulting Group estimating $850 billion in potential global economic value by 2040. Layer on top early-stage partnerships—Rigetti’s Air Force collaboration, IonQ and Rigetti gaining cloud access through Amazon (Braket) and Microsoft (Azure Quantum)—plus JPMorgan Chase’s $1.5 trillion, 10-year Security and Resiliency Initiative earmarking up to $10 billion for quantum investments, and you’ve got a narrative that captivates Wall Street.

The technology itself holds promise. Quantum computers could revolutionize drug development, accelerate AI model training, and transform weather forecasting. But here’s the catch: most Wall Street analysts covering these stocks don’t expect quantum computers to outperform classical systems for practical problem-solving until late this decade. More alarming? There’s scant evidence that businesses are actually generating positive returns on their quantum investments today.

When Innovation Meets Valuation Reality

This is where Sean Williams and other market observers sound the alarm. History shows every “game-changing” innovation of the past 30 years—from the internet to genome sequencing, nanotechnology, 3D printing, blockchain, and the metaverse—followed the same script: explosive hype, irrational adoption projections, then a devastating correction once reality set in.

The valuation signals are flashing red. Before the dot-com crash in March 2000, internet stocks commanded price-to-sales (P/S) ratios exceeding 30—levels history proves unsustainable. Today, IonQ, Rigetti, D-Wave, and Quantum Computing Inc. all trade at P/S ratios well above 30. Even projecting forward to 2028, all four remain north of that danger zone.

The First-Mover Advantage Crumbles

Here’s what should keep investors awake: the Magnificent Seven tech giants are developing their own quantum processing units. With cash reserves that dwarf smaller pure-play competitors, these titans could quickly commoditize what currently looks like a defensible moat. The window for IonQ, Rigetti, D-Wave, and Quantum Computing Inc. to establish dominance is narrowing fast.

While 2025 delivered banner year returns for quantum computing pure-plays, 2026 looms as a potential inflection point. History doesn’t predict the future with certainty, but 30 years of data on hyped technologies offer an uncomfortable lesson: those who chase the dream often arrive just as the script flips.