Thanksgiving Weekend Sales Push: Which Segments Are Primed for Growth?

The upcoming Thanksgiving weekend is shaping up to be a retail bonanza, with unprecedented shopping activity expected to drive significant gains across multiple market segments. Consumer spending patterns this year reveal compelling opportunities in several exchange-traded funds (ETFs) tied to retail innovation and digital commerce.

Record Participation Signals Spending Surge

A massive 186.9 million shoppers are anticipated to participate from Thanksgiving through Cyber Monday—up from 183.4 million in the prior year. This surge reflects strong consumer confidence heading into the critical holiday season, which typically accounts for roughly one-third of annual retail revenues.

The breakdown is telling: Black Friday remains the cornerstone shopping occasion, drawing an estimated 130.4 million participants, trailed by Cyber Monday at 73.9 million. Weekend shopping is also gaining traction, with approximately 67 million planners to shop on Saturday. The calendar works in retailers’ favor this year, as Thanksgiving falls on November 27, extending the shopping window.

Consumer Wallet Expansion Across Generations

Purchase intentions paint an optimistic picture. The International Council of Shopping Centers (ICSC) survey indicates average spending will reach $542 over the five-day period, climbing from $529 last year. More impressively, roughly 36% of consumers plan to exceed last year’s spending, while 40% expect to maintain similar levels.

Millennial shoppers are leading this charge, with projected average outlays of $764 per person. Gen Z is equally noteworthy, with nearly 60% signaling intentions to boost purchases compared with the previous year. This multigenerational enthusiasm translates into robust momentum for consumer-facing equities and related ETFs.

Omnichannel Shopping Reshape Consumer Behavior

Shopping patterns have fundamentally evolved. The ICSC data shows 83% of shoppers will visit physical stores, while the same percentage plans online ordering for delivery. Interestingly, 58% intend to order digitally and collect in-store—a hybrid model that benefits both brick-and-mortar retailers and digital infrastructure providers.

Beyond merchandise, bundled experiences matter. Many shoppers combine retail trips with dining, entertainment, and seasonal activities, broadening the value chain captured by various market segments.

Margin-Supportive Discount Dynamics

A noteworthy shift is underway: retailers are deploying fewer promotions with shorter durations this year. This disciplined approach could strengthen profitability margins, contrasting with previous years’ heavy discounting patterns.

However, aggressive pricing by major players like Walmart (WMT) creates competitive pressure. WMT shares have advanced 17% year-to-date through November 21 and gained 2.6% in the prior week. The stock features prominently in the Fidelity MSCI Consumer Staples Index ETF (FSTA), making this holding particularly relevant for weekend retail momentum.

ETFs Positioned to Capture Holiday Tailwinds

Several exchange-traded funds stand positioned to benefit from converging consumer trends:

Retail & E-Commerce Focus:

• SPDR S&P Retail ETF (XRT) tracks traditional retail equities poised to capitalize on foot traffic and spending increases
• Amplify Online Retail ETF (IBUY) captures pure-play digital commerce winners
• ProShares Online Retail ETF (ONLN) offers concentrated exposure to internet-native retailers

Digital Payments & FinTech:

• Amplify Digital Payments ETF (IPAY) benefits from transaction volume expansion as digital payments accelerate
• iShares FinTech Active ETF (BPAY) gains from broader financial technology adoption during peak shopping periods

Discretionary Consumer Segment:

• Invesco S&P SmallCap Consumer Discretionary ETF (PSCD) provides mid-cap exposure to consumer spending beneficiaries

These vehicles collectively position investors to participate in the Thanksgiving weekend spending surge, capturing gains across retail distribution, digital enablement, and payment infrastructure layers.

The Bottom Line

The convergence of record expected participation, elevated per-person spending, generational engagement, and omnichannel shopping dynamics creates a compelling backdrop for consumer-linked investments. While promotional discipline may temper some gains, the fundamental spending momentum remains robust, potentially rewarding strategic ETF positions across retail, technology, and financial services segments through the critical holiday quarter.