How UAMY's $352M Contract Win Signals a Shift in U.S. Critical Mineral Strategy

United States Antimony Corp (UAMY) just landed what might be its watershed moment. Two major long-term contracts totaling $352 million—a $245 million Defense Logistics Agency (DLA) award for metallic antimony and a $107 million commercial deal for antimony trioxide—have suddenly transformed the company’s revenue horizon from single-year cycles into a half-decade visibility window. Last year’s $15 million in sales pales in comparison to what’s now on the books.

The timing reveals something larger than one company’s fortune. With China commanding roughly 90% of global antimony refining capacity, the U.S. government has few domestic alternatives. UAMY sits as North America’s only vertically integrated antimony producer—making it not just a supplier, but a strategic necessity under Executive Order 14017, which mandates secure, domestically sourced critical mineral chains.

The Numbers Behind the Transition

The scale-up is already underway. Montana and Mexico smelting operations ramped sharply in October, with monthly output nearly matching entire third-quarter volumes. Management projects capacity expansion from current runs of roughly 100 tons monthly to 500-600 tons by 2026, powered by ongoing plant modernization and feedstock agreements. This isn’t theoretical growth—it’s backed by binding contracts and capital deployment.

Yet margin pressures loom. Antimony pricing tightened in Q4, and execution depends on weather-dependent U.S. mining operations, foreign ore consistency, and logistical variables that can introduce volatility. UAMY acknowledges these “bumpy” complexities but frames them as manageable within its scaled production model.

UAMY in the Broader Critical Minerals Landscape

Two peer players underline where this sector is heading:

Centrus Energy (LEU) is anchoring America’s enriched uranium supply infrastructure. Its HALEU and LEU enrichment programs leverage 3.9+ million proven centrifuge machine hours, while Piketon facility preparations—including major hiring initiatives and supply-chain staging—signal readiness for significant DOE task orders. The shift from trader-broker to vertically integrated enrichment operator mirrors UAMY’s own transition.

Energy Fuels (UUUU) reinforced its standing as the leading U.S. uranium miner through aggressive mine-site scaling and rare-earth diversification. Pinyon Plain output accelerated, LaSalle Complex reactivation progressed, and Madagascar heavy-mineral-sands expansion advanced. Uranium production tracking toward 2+ million lbs annually, with margin expansion as unit costs decline, positions UUUU as a multi-commodity critical minerals powerhouse.

Valuation and Market Reception

UAMY shares rallied 287% year-to-date versus 23% for its peer group, though valuation metrics reflect the contract windfall. The stock trades at a 8.93 forward price-to-sales ratio, above both the industry average and its five-year median of 4.77. The Zacks Consensus Estimate projects 2025 earnings up 150% year-over-year, though current Zacks Rank sits at #3 (Hold), suggesting cautious optimism balanced against execution risk.

The Inflection Point

What distinguishes this moment isn’t just revenue visibility—it’s strategic positioning. As Washington actively remaps critical mineral sourcing, UAMY’s dual contract wins fortify not just top-line growth but national supply chain resilience. The company is transitioning from microcap mining operator to a rising critical minerals powerhouse, a shift anchored in government policy and Cold War-era supply chain anxiety. If execution unfolds as planned, this quarter may mark the beginning of UAMY’s emergence as an indispensable domestic supplier at a time when U.S. production capacity remains scarce.