#降息预期 Seeing the news about the rate cut expectations being priced in, the first thought that flashed through my mind was— we've played this script before.

During the Federal Reserve's rate cut cycle in 2019, I watched the market go from panic to gradually digesting policy signals, just like now. The rhythm back then was eerily similar: policy shifts triggered initial excitement, followed by disappointment, and then the real validation phase. The difference was that back then, we didn't have mechanisms like spot ETFs to influence the market.

The most interesting detail is the tug-of-war between institutional investors and retail traders. Since December, smart money wallets have accumulated an additional 42,565 Bitcoins, indicating serious positioning. Meanwhile, retail investors are reducing their holdings. This opposing flow often signals a turning point in history—either the top pressure is releasing or the bottom is starting to accumulate.

Bitcoin's price has pulled back from its 52-week high to around $80,000. Now, the 200-day moving average slope has turned positive, with the 50-day and 200-day moving averages forming support. These technical signals sound promising, but I need to remind everyone that in the face of macro uncertainty, any moving average could be an illusion. The Fed indicates only one rate cut next year, with upward revisions to economic growth expectations and downward revisions to inflation expectations—collectively suggesting that the room for easing is actually limited, not infinitely open.

So, I remain cautious about the so-called "Christmas rally." It’s not enough to trigger a rally; rather, it indicates the market is still waiting to see real economic data. The ability to absorb supply ultimately depends on whether ETF demand can support the market. Past cycles tell me that mechanistic buying is crucial, but it cannot counteract a reversal of macro pessimism.

The current state feels more like an intermediate phase—confirming no further deterioration but not yet forming a new trend.