Gold Mining Leader Newmont: Strong Fundamentals Suggest Now Could Be the Right Time to Buy

Newmont Corporation [NEM] has climbed 79% over the past six months, significantly outpacing the broader mining sector’s 54.8% growth and the S&P 500’s 16% advance. This impressive performance reflects not only the strength in gold prices but also the company’s operational excellence and high-quality asset portfolio. When compared to peers like Barrick Mining Corporation [B], Agnico Eagle Mines Limited [AEM], and Kinross Gold Corporation [KGC]—which gained 104.4%, 42%, and 81.7% respectively—Newmont demonstrates competitive resilience in a thriving commodity landscape.

Strategic Growth Projects Fueling Expansion

Newmont’s growth trajectory is underpinned by a disciplined investment approach across multiple high-impact projects. The Ahafo North expansion in Ghana represents a significant milestone, having recently transitioned to commercial production following its first gold pour last September. Over a projected 13-year mine life, this operation is expected to deliver between 275,000 and 325,000 ounces annually, with 50,000 ounces targeted for the current year before ramping to full capacity during 2026.

The company’s Australian operations continue advancing through the Cadia Panel Caves and Tanami Expansion 2 initiatives, both positioned to extend production capacity and reserve longevity. The transformative Newcrest acquisition has proved particularly valuable, consolidating a multi-decade portfolio of gold and copper assets across premier mining jurisdictions worldwide. The combined entity has already achieved $500 million in annual run-rate synergies.

Capital Reallocation Strengthens Financial Position

Newmont has executed a disciplined portfolio optimization strategy, completing its non-core divestiture program in April 2025. The sale of its Akyem operation in Ghana and Porcupine operation in Canada, coupled with equity sales in Greatland Resources and Discovery Silver Corp, generated approximately $470 million in after-tax proceeds. The full 2025 divestiture program is projected to deliver roughly $3 billion in after-tax cash, strategically deployed toward debt reduction and shareholder returns.

This financial agility is supported by a robust liquidity position of $9.6 billion as of Q3 2025, including $5.6 billion in cash and equivalents. Free cash flow more than doubled year-over-year to $1.6 billion, driven by a 40% surge in operating cash flow to $2.3 billion. The company has returned over $5.7 billion to shareholders through dividends and buybacks over two years while simultaneously reducing net debt to near-zero levels, demonstrating balanced capital discipline.

Bullish Technical Setup Aligns with Fundamental Strength

From a technical perspective, NEM stock displays clear upward momentum. The stock has consistently traded above its 200-day simple moving average since April 9, 2025, with the 50-day SMA positioned above the longer-term average following a golden crossover on April 16, 2025—a textbook bullish configuration. These technical signals reinforce the case that now could be a favorable moment to buy gold-exposed equity investments.

External Market Tailwinds Support Precious Metals

Gold prices have surged approximately 60% this year, driven by multiple converging factors. Trade policy uncertainty and elevated geopolitical tensions have prompted central banks worldwide to accelerate reserve accumulation. Additionally, the Federal Reserve’s rate reduction cycle and expectations of further cuts have lowered opportunity costs for holding non-yielding assets like gold. Prices have broken through the $4,000 per troy ounce threshold for the first time, with structural support expected from ongoing central bank buying and persistent global uncertainties.

Valuation and Income Appeal

Newmont offers an attractive entry point at 12.56X forward P/E, a modest 1.4% discount to mining industry peers. The company’s 1.1% dividend yield, supported by a sustainable 17% payout ratio, provides current income alongside capital appreciation potential. The company’s rising earnings trajectory further validates this assessment—2025 earnings estimates have increased to $6.06 per share, reflecting 74.1% year-over-year growth, with 2026 earnings projected to grow approximately 16.6%.

Investment Perspective

For investors evaluating whether now is the appropriate time to buy gold equities, Newmont presents a compelling case. The combination of production growth through near-term project ramp-ups, fortress-like financial health, disciplined capital allocation, favorable technical positioning, and beneficial macro tailwinds from elevated gold prices creates a multi-faceted investment thesis. The company’s Tier 1 asset concentration ensures margin resilience even in commodity downturns, while its dividend provides downside cushioning. With gold prices supported by structural demand and geopolitical headwinds likely persisting, this positioning suggests Newmont is well-suited for investors seeking exposure to precious metals strength.