Gold has once again sparked a discussion. A recent report from a leading institution has made an ambitious prediction—gold prices could reach $4,500. However, the analysis is not definitive; in the short term, the market may face a correction pressure, while the long-term outlook remains optimistic. What underlying logic is behind this view? It’s worth a careful analysis.

**Why is short-term volatility likely?**

The main reason is the rapid increase. Market participants have already priced in rate cut expectations, and their positions are tightly held. Any small disturbance, such as unexpectedly high inflation data, can trigger a correction. Investors who chase the highs are most likely to be taught a lesson. Maintaining restraint at this stage is actually a wise move.

**Why is the long-term outlook still optimistic?**

The overall script hasn’t changed. Global central banks are still continuously buying precious metal reserves, and the de-dollarization trend is gaining momentum. Once the Federal Reserve truly begins a more easing policy cycle, the upward potential for gold will open up. This isn’t just a matter of the next year or two, but a longer-term cycle.

**2026 will be the real turning point**

According to institutional analysis, if inflation shows signs of rebounding in early 2026, central banks may step on the brakes, causing some fluctuations in gold. But after May, with a new policy leadership team in place, if inflation indeed returns to a reasonable range, rate cuts could be significantly expanded. At that point, gold may experience a stronger upward wave.

**Silver investors need to stay alert**

As a high-volatility version of gold, silver has a smaller market and more obvious leverage effects, making its rises and falls more intense. This presents opportunities for investors with strong risk tolerance, but those with lower risk appetite should be extra cautious.

**Investment advice**

Rather than fixating on whether the $4,500 target can be reached, it’s better to focus on the actual turning points in Federal Reserve policy. That’s the real switch for the gold market. Opportunities often require patience, not rushing to chase the highs. Monitoring policy windows and making timely adjustments will be much more rational than blindly chasing after peaks.