Gold prices have already broken through the $4,500 mark. Is this surge a short-term bubble or a prelude to a long-term bull market? A recent market research report provides an interesting answer.

The report suggests that there are indeed signs of overheating currently, and short-term fluctuations are inevitable. However, from a medium to long-term perspective, the fundamental logic of a bull market remains unchanged. The key variable is the direction of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy—each decision by this "captain" of the market will profoundly impact the performance of gold and crypto assets.

According to forecasts, the 2026 market may unfold in two phases: initially, with inflation data fluctuating repeatedly, the market will experience a period of volatility; afterward, if the Federal Reserve begins a rate-cutting cycle, a new upward trend could emerge.

Also worth noting is silver. Compared to the relatively stable gold, silver's price volatility is much more intense, making it a leveraged version of a leveraged asset. For investors with limited risk tolerance, participation in silver requires cautious assessment.

Rather than wasting effort guessing the short-term top, it’s better to closely follow every shift in the Federal Reserve's policy. That is the real key to determining the future trend. The correlation between Bitcoin and gold is also changing within this framework, and the interaction between the crypto market and traditional assets warrants ongoing observation.