Multiple Headwinds Push Corn Lower as Different Types of Fades Emerge

2025-12-26 02:52:16

Corn futures displayed a softer tone on Monday, with traders engaging in various position adjustments in anticipation of Tuesday’s critical USDA report. The different types of fades visible in the market—including profit-taking and portfolio rebalancing—contributed to the fractional decline of approximately 2 cents across contracts. The CmdtyView national average cash corn price slipped 1 1/4 cents lower, settling at $3.98 1/4.

Export Dynamics Paint Mixed Picture

Recent Export Inspections data revealed 1.453 MT (57.2 mbu) of corn shipped during the week ending December 4, representing a 10.89% decline week-over-week but still posting a robust 36% increase compared to the same period last year. Mexico dominated as the primary destination, receiving 520,691 MT, followed by Japan with 310,828 MT and Taiwan accounting for 81,209 MT. The broader marketing year narrative remains constructive, with cumulative shipments reaching 20.63 MMT (812.2 mbu), marking a impressive 69.36% year-over-year expansion.

Export Sales Disappoint Ahead of Critical USDA Update

This morning’s USDA export sales catchup report delivered disappointing results, with just 979,525 MT of corn sold during the week ending November 6. The figure missed trader expectations of 1-2 MMT in bookings and marked the lowest point in the marketing year, suggesting some caution may be creeping into international purchasing patterns. Tuesday’s monthly WASDE report carries heightened significance, with Bloomberg-surveyed analysts projecting 2.145 bbu of US corn ending stocks—a potential 9 mbu reduction from November’s estimate if the forecast materializes.

Global Supply Recalibration Underway

Brazil’s AgRural has trimmed its 2025/26 corn production estimate to 135.3 MMT, representing a 5.8 MMT decrease year-over-year. The USDA’s competing estimate of 131 MMT remains under review and will likely be revisited in Tuesday’s WASDE release, potentially resolving the discrepancy between the two forecasts and clarifying global supply trajectories.

Price Action Summary

Dec 25 Corn futures closed at $4.36 1/4, down 1/2 cent, Nearby Cash corn settled at $3.98 1/4, declining 1 1/4 cents, Mar 26 Corn finished at $4.43 3/4, down 1 cent, and May 26 Corn completed the session at $4.51 1/4, also down 1 cent. The different types of fades observed across the contract curve reflect underlying uncertainty ahead of USDA’s comprehensive supply and demand assessment.

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