Monday Morning Quotes Show Wheat Markets Under Pressure Across Global Trading Session

mev_me_maybe · 2025-12-26T02:23:37+00:00

Wheat futures experienced a selloff, with all major contracts declining. Export reports showed mixed demand despite increased shipments, while speculators increased short positions. The market sentiment remains bearish due to supply pressures and international developments.

mev_me_maybe

2025-12-26 02:23:37

Abstract generation in progress

Wheat futures faced a sustained selloff during the week, with all three major U.S. contracts experiencing notable declines as of Monday morning quotes. The Chicago SRW market led losses with decreases ranging from 8 to 9 cents across most active months, signaling renewed interest from sellers as open interest climbed by 13,890 contracts. Kansas City HRW futures trimmed 6 to 7 cents by the close, while Minneapolis spring wheat similarly retreated 6 to 7 cents in front-month deliveries.

Export Activity Drives Market Narrative

The USDA’s Export Inspections report released Monday painted a mixed picture for wheat demand. In the week ending December 11, cumulative shipments totaled 488,025 MT (17.93 mbu), representing a 23.2% year-over-year increase compared to the prior week and a substantial 61.38% surge versus the same period last year. The Philippines emerged as the dominant buyer with 113,367 MT, followed by Mexico’s 89,044 MT and South Korea’s 66,008 MT allocation.

The broader marketing year tally now stands at 14.124 MMT (425.42 mbu), demonstrating resilience with a 21.9% premium relative to the comparable year-ago timeframe. However, export sales bookings for the week ending November 20 showed signs of deceleration, with commitments reaching just 361,715 MT—marking a five-week trough and falling slightly short of year-ago levels.

Trading Positioning and International Developments

Commitment of Traders data as of November 25 revealed that speculative funds increased their net short position in CBT wheat futures and options by 5,055 contracts, bringing total net shorts to 53,746 contracts. In the Kansas City complex, specs amplified net short exposure by 2,125 contracts to reach 22,064 contracts, suggesting bearish sentiment among large traders.

International developments also weighed on sentiment. France’s farm ministry projected 2026 soft wheat acreage at 4.56 million hectares (11.25 million acres), reflecting a modest 0.1 million hectare increase from the prior year.

Monday Morning Quotes: Futures Settlement Summary

Current pricing on Monday morning quotes reflects the week’s bearish undertone across all three trading venues:

CBOT Wheat: March 2026 contract closed at $5.20 3/4, down 8 1/2 cents with current losses of 5 1/4 cents. May 2026 finished at $5.29, declining 8 1/4 cents with ongoing losses of 5 cents.

KCBT Wheat: March 2026 settled at $5.12, down 6 cents and currently lower by 3 1/4 cents. May 2026 closed at $5.24 1/4, retreating 6 1/4 cents with present declines of 3 cents.

MGEX Wheat: March 2026 ended at $5.69 3/4, down 7 cents with minimal current losses of 3/4 cent. May 2026 finished at $5.78 1/4, declining 6 1/4 cents with current losses of 1/2 cent.

The persistent pressure across these three wheat complexes underscores cautious market conditions as traders reassess demand fundamentals against mounting supply considerations.

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