JOBY Stock Climbs 10.1% Post-Earnings: What's Driving the Rally?

Joby Aviation (JOBY) has delivered a 10.1% gain over the past month, marking an outperformance relative to the broader S&P 500. This rally comes on the heels of the company’s latest quarterly results, but the real question for investors is whether this momentum can sustain or if profit-taking lies ahead.

Unpacking Q3’s Mixed Signals

The third quarter of 2025 revealed a complex picture for Joby Aviation. On the earnings front, the company posted an adjusted EPS loss of 26 cents per share—wider than consensus expectations of 19 cents and deteriorating from the prior-year loss of 21 cents. This widening loss might seem concerning on the surface.

However, revenues painted a more optimistic story. Q3 revenues totaled $22.6 million, significantly bolstered by the August acquisition of Blade’s passenger business. This figure shattered analyst expectations by 140.2%—a massive beat compared to just $0.03 million in the year-ago quarter.

Behind the scenes, operating expenses surged 30.3% year-over-year, driven primarily by elevated R&D spending (up 18.2%) and administrative costs (up 47%). Adjusted EBITDA registered a $132.8 million loss, reflecting heavy investment in aircraft development, certification, and manufacturing initiatives.

Cash position remains relevant: JOBY ended Q3 with $208.4 million in cash and equivalents, compared to $199.6 million at the close of 2024. For the full year 2025, management projects liquid assets in the upper band of the $500-$540 million range.

Estimate Revisions Turn Negative

The market’s enthusiasm appears tempered by recent analyst activity. Over the past 30 days, consensus estimates have shifted downward by 8.33%, signaling that the earnings surprise hasn’t convinced Wall Street to raise forward projections. This divergence—between the stock’s 10.1% gain and declining estimate revisions—suggests investors may be pricing in factors beyond the immediate quarter.

Valuation Metrics Remain Challenged

Joby Aviation’s investment scorecard presents headwinds. The stock carries a VGM Score of F across all dimensions: Growth (F), Momentum (F), and Value (F). This places it in the lowest quintile for most traditional investment frameworks. The Zacks Rank of #3 (Hold) reflects the expectation of flat-to-in-line returns ahead.

How Does JOBY Compare to Peers?

Within the Aerospace-Defense industry, performance benchmarks offer perspective. General Dynamics (GD), an established sector player, gained just 0.4% over the same period—a stark contrast to JOBY’s 10.1% advance. General Dynamics reported Q3 revenues of $12.91 billion (+10.6% year-over-year) with EPS of $3.88, up from $3.35 previously. The company carries a VGM Score of B and also holds a Zacks Rank #3, but its more established fundamentals and profitability provide a different risk-return profile than emerging player JOBY.

The Bottom Line

Joby Aviation’s 10.1% climb reflects investor optimism about revenue acceleration and long-term potential, despite near-term losses and revised estimates. While the acquisition of Blade’s passenger operations suggests scale ambitions, the divergence between stock gains and declining analyst estimates warrants caution. Investors should monitor whether cash reserves translate into a path to profitability before taking conviction positions in this aircraft manufacturer.