Soybean Complex Retreating Amid Moderate Trade Activity

2025-12-26 02:02:08

Abstract generation in progress

The soybean market is experiencing weakness across the board during mid-session trading, with prices pulling back 6 to 9½ cents on most contract months. The cmdtyView national average cash soybean price has declined 9½ cents, now trading at $10.53¼. Complementary products are also under pressure—soymeal futures retreated $5.40 while soy oil futures dropped 32 points, reflecting broader softness in the complex.

Export Momentum Shows Mixed Signals

Weekly export bookings for soybeans arrived within the anticipated range, hitting 919,447 MT against estimates spanning 0.6 to 1.6 MMT. While this marks the strongest performance in three weeks, year-over-year comparisons tell a different story, with shipments down 8.6% from the corresponding period last year. Soymeal sales painted a rosier picture, coming in at 328,300 MT toward the upper end of the 150,000 to 350,000 MT range. Bean oil, however, showed net sales reductions of 11,800 MT, suggesting cautious positioning in this segment.

The most notable development emerged from USDA announcements, which disclosed an additional 462,000 MT allocation to China on Wednesday morning. Combined with earlier transactions this week, cumulative sales to China have reached 1.122 MMT, elevating total known purchases from the country to 1.812 MMT—a significant volume that underscores China’s continued appetite despite the broader market decline.

Positioning Shifts in Managed Money

Recent Commitment of Traders data covering the week ending September 30 revealed managed money increasing their net short exposure by 9,410 contracts in soybean futures and options. This adjustment pushed their total net short position to 38,712 contracts as September concluded, suggesting growing bearish sentiment among professional traders and reflecting the broader tone fading through the complex.

Contract-by-Contract Overview

January 2026 soybeans are trading at $11.26¾, down 9½ cents from previous levels, while nearby cash sits at $10.53¼ with an identical decline. March 2026 contracts are 8¼ cents lower at $11.36¼, while May 2026 soybeans show a 7½-cent retreat to $11.45, illustrating how the weakness moderates slightly for later-month expirations.

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