The current US economic expansion is riding almost entirely on big tech's aggressive capital deployment into AI infrastructure. We're talking massive spending on server farms, processor manufacturing, and cooling systems—the raw hardware backbone of AI buildout.

But here's what's not moving: overall productivity metrics remain stagnant, and investment outside the tech sector continues to flatline. The growth narrative hinges almost entirely on whether this infrastructure wave translates into actual economic output down the line.

Right now? It's concentrated capital flow into a narrow sector, not broad-based economic expansion.