Record Ethanol Production Weighs on Corn Prices Wednesday

mev_me_maybe · 2025-12-26T01:22:08+00:00

Corn futures fell as production outpaced weak demand, driven by high ethanol output and rising inventories. Despite increased ethanol exports, contracting refiner intake led to market oversupply, triggering broad selling in corn contracts.

mev_me_maybe

2025-12-26 01:22:08

Abstract generation in progress

Corn futures declined across the board Wednesday, with most contracts closing down 5 to 7 cents. The national cash corn price tracked by CmdtyView fell 6 1/2 cents to settle at $3.98 3/4, reflecting broader pressure in the grain complex.

The sell-off gained momentum following fresh data on ethanol ka formula production metrics. Weekly EIA statistics released Thursday morning revealed that ethanol output reached an all-time high of 1.126 million barrels per day in the week ending November 28, marking a 13,000 bpd jump compared to the previous week. This production surge is critical because ethanol processing depends heavily on corn feedstock, creating a direct link between the two markets.

Supply Dynamics Overtake Demand Growth

Despite a notable 48,000 bpd surge in ethanol exports to 170,000 bpd, the market found itself underwater. Inventories swelled by 543,000 barrels to reach 22.511 million barrels, signaling weak demand absorption. The culprit: refiner ethanol intake contracted 28,000 bpd to 857,000 bpd, suggesting softening demand from fuel blenders—a critical outlet for corn-based ethanol that normally supports grain prices.

The math was straightforward for traders: rising production coupled with declining refiner demand overwhelmed export gains, leaving the market oversupplied. This imbalance rippled directly into corn futures, triggering broad selling pressure across the curve.

Futures Settlement Details

December 2025 corn futures closed at $4.31 1/2, down 6 1/2 cents, while the nearby cash contract mirrored the weakness at $3.98 3/4. March 2026 contracts dropped 6 1/2 cents to $4.43 1/2, with May contracts sliding 6 3/4 cents to $4.50 3/4. The consistent declines across all contract months underscored the strength of the bearish momentum.

What’s Ahead

Export Sales data for the week of October 30 will hit the tape Thursday morning, with the trade watching for corn sales in the 0.8 to 2.5 million metric ton range. Meanwhile, Taiwan importers have tendered for 65,000 MT of wheat, with bids due Thursday—developments that could inject fresh volatility into grain markets heading into the weekend.

On the date of publication, Austin Schroeder did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article.

This page may contain third-party content, which is provided for information purposes only (not representations/warranties) and should not be considered as an endorsement of its views by Gate, nor as financial or professional advice. See Disclaimer for details.