This Friday (December 26th) is a critical milestone—more than half of the total options positions will be approaching expiration. What does this mean? Rollover trading will become the main driving force in the market.

Recently, the options market has indeed experienced some volatility, with data fluctuating sharply in the short term. This raises a question for investors: can trading signals be solely based on options data? The answer is actually quite nuanced. When large options positions are about to expire, the market's focus often shifts from price discovery to position management. At this point, the reference value of options data diminishes.

Today, the proportion of large-volume Put options transactions has reached a relatively high level, reflecting market participants preparing for the upcoming expiration date. Instead of being confused by short-term volatility, it’s better to pay attention to the flow of rollover trades—that’s where the true market sentiment is reflected. Traders need to remind themselves: options data is a tool, not the answer. Combining it with fundamentals and on-chain data will lead to more stable trading.