Bitcoin fluctuates around the 80,000 mark, with the yen's sharp decline bringing new variables

Market Dynamics Shift Suddenly, Macro Environment Becomes the Key

The yen’s sharp decline is reshaping global capital flows. At the same time, Bitcoin is facing a new turning point—after rapidly falling from a historic high of 12.6K USD, BTC briefly touched a 7-month low of 80537 USD on November 21, then initiated a rebound. As of November 24, Bitcoin has recovered to 87874 USD, demonstrating some resilience.

Changes in Japanese monetary policy intertwined with the Fed’s rate cut expectations have added complexity to the crypto market. Recently, NY Fed President Williams hinted at the possibility of further rate cuts in December, with market bets on the Fed’s rate cuts rising to 70%. These macro signals have a dual impact on Bitcoin’s attractiveness: on one hand, a low-interest environment favors risk assets; on the other hand, the yen’s plunge may lead some funds to flow into domestic Japanese assets, diverting risk capital.

Technical Outlook Shows a Turn, but Risks Are Not Fully Dissipated

CoinKarma’s analysis indicates that after losing a long-term critical support level, Bitcoin has endured strong selling pressure for several consecutive days, accelerating the downward trend. However, it is noteworthy that on November 21, Bitcoin’s daily close on multiple major trading platforms recorded the highest trading volume recently, indicating a clear shift in market holdings.

The pattern of “high turnover combined with increased volume to halt declines” already exhibits typical short-term bottom characteristics. Crypto analyst Banmu Xia believes, “The $80,500 level has basically confirmed an important low in this downward cycle, and may even be the bottom.” However, he also emphasizes that this does not mean the bear market is over, but rather that the market may shift into a sideways consolidation pattern.

Halving Debate and Macro-Driven Reassessment

There are significant disagreements in market analysis regarding Bitcoin’s future trend.

Previously, many linked this cycle’s decline to the Bitcoin halving event in April 2024, believing that the four-year halving cycle would lead to cyclical crashes. However, macroeconomist Lyn Alden offers a different view, arguing that the current market drivers have already surpassed the halving event itself, being influenced by broader macroeconomic conditions and changing market interest in assets, thus challenging the traditional four-year cycle perspective.

Support Levels as Focus, Large Holders Face Psychological Tests

The most closely watched aspect now is whether Bitcoin can hold the $80,000 support. If it breaks below this level, a new downward move could be triggered.

According to CryptoOnchain on-chain data, traders are mainly monitoring the $70,000 to $73,000 range. This zone is not only a critical technical level but also, on-chain data shows, nearly coincides with the average cost basis of large Bitcoin holders. Historical experience indicates that when prices approach large holders’ average cost basis, they often add to their positions to defend the price, forming a solid support. The capital shifts caused by the yen’s plunge may influence the willingness of large holders to defend the support.

Conclusion: Rebound or Trap?

Bitcoin currently presents a complex and delicate situation: technical signals clearly indicate a bottom, macro environment expectations of rate cuts support risk appetite, but external variables like the yen’s plunge increase uncertainty. Short-term rebound momentum exists, but whether it can sustain and break above $87,874 remains to be seen. Holding the $70,000–$73,000 support zone will be crucial in determining the next direction.