Ripple(XRP), bullish signals in derivatives market and mixed chart signals… Breaking through $3 is the key

Short-term rally ends, entering correction phase, technical signals are ‘mixed’

Ripple(XRP) has concluded a two-day upward trend and entered a correction phase on Thursday. The current price has fallen to $2.43, about 5.4% below the intraday high of $2.57. This is interpreted as a result of the renewed bearish sentiment in the market and natural profit-taking following the short-term rally. In particular, as investor sentiment toward altcoins in general has hardened, the dominant movement is to unwind risks before further gains.

Derivatives market detects signals of new fund inflows

Derivatives refer to financial products traded based on the price fluctuations of underlying assets, and currently, this sector in the XRP market is sending interesting signals. Open interest(Open Interest) surged from $3.36 billion on Monday to $4.11 billion on Tuesday, and trading volume also reached $10.58 billion. This indicates not just simple position rebalancing but actual new funds are flowing in. Especially in the altcoin market, where retail investors make up a large proportion, an increase in open interest is a clear sign that short-term traders are becoming more active.

The simultaneous increase in OI and trading volume suggests investors are betting on a short-term upward scenario and are willing to accept greater volatility in the process. However, for these bullish signals to translate into a genuine trend reversal, both indicators need to be maintained or continue to grow. If open interest and trading volume both decline, the current upward movement could be reclassified as a temporary short-covering rally.

Discrepancies in technical picture, a confirmation point

The technical signals in the spot market show a much more complex picture. XRP is currently pressed below the 50-day exponential moving average(EMA) at $2.56, the 200-day EMA at $2.58, and the 100-day EMA at $2.64. The fact that these three moving averages are forming resistance levels suggests that a full-fledged bullish trend is unlikely at this stage.

The Relative Strength Index(RSI) has also fallen to a neutral level of 48, indicating recent upward momentum is weakening. Meanwhile, MACD still maintains a buy signal, highlighting a clear discrepancy between bullish and bearish indicators. This suggests the market has not yet decided on a direction.

Support levels are a key variable

The main support levels traders are watching are $2.24 and $2.07. Both levels previously saw actual buying support during the correction, making them likely to serve as critical defense lines in case of a sharp decline.

To attempt a retest of $3.00, these support levels must hold, and XRP needs to recover back above the key moving averages at $2.56 and $2.58. If this happens, the current correction could be reinterpreted not as an “already ended rebound” but as a “recovery with room for further gains.”

Conclusion: the key is whether derivatives and spot signals align

Currently, XRP is experiencing new fund inflows in the derivatives market, but the spot chart still lacks sufficient technical confirmation. The increase in open interest and trading volume could underpin a bullish scenario, but if the price fails to break through resistance levels, a correction back to support levels at $2.24 or $2.07 cannot be ruled out. At this point, rather than a direct rise toward $3.00, it is a crucial juncture to verify whether signals from derivatives and spot markets are pointing in the same direction.