Gold and silver rise together, but Bitcoin remains stagnant—who are the real winners in this market?

December’s crypto market shows an interesting divergence pattern. Following the Federal Reserve’s announcement of interest rate cuts, traditional safe-haven assets performed remarkably—Silver surged 5% to a record high of $64—gold also broke through the $4,300 mark, benefiting related silver concept stocks. However, Bitcoin, regarded as digital gold, appeared somewhat lackluster, with the latest trading around $87,700, falling short of the expected strong rebound.

US Dollar Weakness Fuels Precious Metals Rally, Crypto Assets Stumble

After the Fed decision, the US dollar index fell to its lowest level since mid-October. This scenario directly benefits gold and silver—both successfully broke through resistance levels, with silver performing especially well. Meanwhile, silver-related stocks or those using silver as a primary raw material also saw upward opportunities.

However, during the same period, Bitcoin’s performance was disappointing. Despite the dollar’s pressure and rising risk aversion, Bitcoin repeatedly tested lows near $90,000, failing to rally as expected to new highs. This divergence reflects subtle shifts between the crypto market and traditional assets.

Decoupling Between Crypto Assets and Stock Markets Becomes More Evident

Wintermute’s strategists pointed out that this market trend further confirms the “decoupling” of crypto assets from the stock market. Data shows that over the past year, only 18% of macro event trading days saw Bitcoin outperform the Nasdaq Index.

Last Thursday’s market movement is a typical example—Nasdaq plunged 1.5 intraday but closed down only 0.25%; the S&P 500 rose slightly; the Dow Jones Industrial Average increased by 1.3%. During this U.S. stock rebound, cryptocurrencies instead declined, indicating that the marginal effects of easing policies are waning.

Meanwhile, market focus is shifting from Federal Reserve policies to U.S. cryptocurrency regulation frameworks, which could become the next key driver.

Altcoins Lead the Decline, Mainstream Coins Chart Their Own Courses

In this correction, altcoins suffered the heaviest losses. Cardano (ADA) and Avalanche (AVAX) fell 2.14% and 1.63% respectively, far exceeding Bitcoin’s decline. Ethereum dropped 0.73% on the day, trading around $2,950.

In contrast, Bitcoin, although unable to rebound strongly, at least held the support at $87,700, indicating institutional buying interest at lower levels.

Selling Pressure Eases, but Rebound Momentum Remains Insufficient

Swissblock, a data analysis firm, noted that Bitcoin’s downward pressure is gradually diminishing, with the second wave of selling significantly weaker than the first, suggesting initial signs of stabilization. However, this is not enough to confirm a trend reversal—bulls still need stronger buying confirmation.

Bitcoin experienced a maximum decline of 36.22% this quarter, failing to break through the $125,000 level effectively. As the dollar broke out from a falling wedge and strengthened, selling pressure on Bitcoin increased. The downtrend only paused when the price re-attracted buyers above $80,000.

Technicals Show a Triangle Consolidation, Bulls Hold Hope

On the four-hour chart, Bitcoin is gradually forming an ascending triangle. The previous support level has turned into horizontal resistance near $93,961. A successful breakout could target the key psychological level of $100,000, with the previous high at $99,939 serving as a primary bullish target.

The daily chart shows more positive signals. Since the low at $80,000, Bitcoin has been building a “higher lows” structure, with increasing market acceptance of the $90,000 level. Recent highs around $94,652 and rising rebound points provide a solid technical foundation for further bullishness.

However, caution is warranted: the current macro environment should favor Bitcoin bulls—dollar weakness, gold and silver breakthroughs, and rising silver concept stocks—yet Bitcoin’s strength is noticeably weaker than other “anti-fiat” assets, hinting that upward momentum may not be as robust as expected.

Dual Outlook: Two Possible Trends

The bullish case is supported by the formation of higher lows and the short-term chart showing higher highs and higher lows as dual support, providing a technical basis for continued upward movement.

The bearish warning is that, despite the dollar’s clear weakness and other hedge assets breaking out, Bitcoin’s performance remains lackluster, possibly indicating insufficient upward momentum.

Investors should closely monitor key levels on short-term charts—whether resistance at $93,961 and $100,000 can be effectively broken—these will directly determine whether the trend continues to rebound or resumes a decline.