Precious metals shine on the horizon: A careful look at gold price trajectories during 2025 and 2026

Gold in 2024: Year of Stability and Multiple Corrections

The year 2024 has gone by with a different story than initial expectations. The year started with relative caution, with prices hovering around $2,251 per ounce in the first quarter, driven by central banks’ desire to diversify and strong domestic demand in Asian markets.

The second quarter saw a wave of gains, with prices reaching $2,450, benefiting from expectations of easing interest rate policies and increasing inflows into gold exchange-traded funds. The third quarter experienced a notable jump to $2,672 as central banks began implementing actual rate cuts and Asian buyers returned strongly.

The final quarter brought sharp volatility, reflected in prices reaching $2,785 in October, then slightly retreating with the US elections, settling near $2,660, indicating a relatively stable year but not without chaos.

The Golden Wave in 2025: An Unexpected Rise

What happened in 2025 was a real leap. Prices didn’t just stabilize—they exploded.

Starting in January at $2,798, the precious metal’s prices embarked on a rapid ascent. It moved through February at $2,894, then jumped in March to $3,304—a 14% increase in one month. The wave continued until reaching $3,770 by the end of September.

But the most dramatic chapter came later. On October 8, gold surpassed $4,000 per ounce for the first time in history, achieving an unforgettable milestone. A few days later, it peaked at $4,381 in mid-October, surpassing all forecasts issued by major financial institutions.

Throughout this period, the price increased by over 50%—a truly astonishing figure.

Beyond the Numbers: Factors Driving the Market

The rise wasn’t random. A logical sequence of factors came together:

The Fed and Interest Rates: The Federal Reserve hinted at possible rate cuts, making gold—which doesn’t yield interest—more attractive.

Weakening Dollar: A decline in the US dollar’s value made gold cheaper for foreign buyers, boosting global demand.

Central Bank Purchases: Central banks, especially in emerging markets, continued buying the precious metal to diversify their reserves.

Geopolitical Uncertainty: Increasing conflicts worldwide prompted investors to seek safe havens—gold being their classic refuge.

Longest Government Shutdown: The prolonged US government shutdown heightened tensions and fueled expectations of rate easing.

Predictions for 2026: Will the Rise Continue?

As 2026 approaches, opinions vary on what the future holds. Major financial institutions have issued bold figures:

• J.P. Morgan expects an average of $5,000, with Q4 closing at $4,900
• Goldman Sachs sees a possibility of reaching $4,000 by mid-2026, or even $4,900 in an optimistic scenario
• Morgan Stanley forecasts $4,500 by mid-2026
• Standard Chartered predicts $4,300 by the end of 2025, and $4,500 over 12 months
• Bank of America expects $4,000 in Q3 2026
• HSBC aims for $5,000
• ANZ forecasts $4,400 by the end of 2025, and $4,600 by mid-2026

The divergence is clear, but there is consensus: gold will not plummet sharply.

Key Price Drivers: What to Watch

Inflation - The Enemy and Ally

Inflation is a double-edged sword. The current inflation rate is around 3% annually, higher than the Fed’s 2% target. This means purchasing power erodes, and gold acts as a wealth protector.

In 2021 and 2022, when inflation reached decade-high levels, gold was the investors’ refuge, pushing prices to about $1,900.

The Dollar’s Strength - The Opposite Effect

A strong dollar puts downward pressure on gold, while a weak dollar lifts it. In 2020, when the US launched massive stimulus packages, the dollar declined and gold rose to $2,075 per ounce in August—a record at the time.

Central Banks - The Real Shadow Player

Central banks hold about 23% of the world’s gold reserves. Their decisions ripple through the market. Increased purchases from emerging markets keep demand high.

Geopolitics - Fear Sells

Crises, conflicts, even political uncertainty—all drive people toward gold. During the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020, stocks collapsed and gold surged past $2,000 for the first time, reaffirming its role as a safe haven.

Investment Funds - The Modern Demand

Gold exchange-traded funds opened the door for millions to invest easily. In 2020, as the crisis began, investors flocked to these funds, adding about 700 tons to their holdings in just a few months—a significant contribution to rising prices.

Jewelry and Industrial Uses - Classic Demand

India and China consume millions of ounces annually for jewelry. This steady demand forms a price support base. Additionally, gold has entered the tech world, from smartphones to medical devices.

Investment Strategies: Choose What Fits You

For the Patient: Long-term Investment

Buying gold bars or coins and holding them for years. Clear advantages: security, inflation protection, direct ownership. Disadvantages: storage and insurance costs, no immediate income.

For the Bold: Short-term Trading

Contracts for difference (CFDs) allow speculation on daily price movements without owning physical gold. You can profit in rising or falling markets. But beware: leverage amplifies both gains and losses.

Example: If you deposit $1,000 with 1:100 leverage, you control $100,000. A $10 increase yields a $10,000 profit, but a $10 decrease results in an equivalent loss.

The Middle Path: ETFs

Gold ETFs offer flexibility without storage hassles. They track the spot gold price in real-time and provide high liquidity.

Essential Tips Before You Start

Understand the Market First: Read, learn, understand how gold moves. Don’t rush blindly.

Set Your Goals: Do you want to preserve wealth? Or make quick profits? Your goal determines your strategy.

Assess Your Risk Tolerance: Despite gold’s safety, short-term prices can be highly volatile.

Don’t Let Savings Erode: Inflation slowly eats away at value. Gold protects you from that.

Monitor Your Portfolio: Don’t buy and forget. Follow, evaluate, rebalance if needed.

Discipline Is Key: Emotions are the investor’s worst enemy. Stick to your plan.

Risks That Could Change the Game

Not all forecasts will come true. Certain factors could curb the rise:

• A return of the Fed to rate hikes will weaken gold’s appeal
• Resolution of geopolitical conflicts may reduce safe-haven demand
• Mass withdrawals from gold funds into other assets could pressure prices

Summary: The Gold Journey Continues

Gold forecasts for 2025 and 2026 point to eventful years. Prices may move within the range of $4,000 to $5,000, a historically high zone. But success isn’t guaranteed—it depends on your choices and discipline.

Whether you choose bars for wealth preservation, CFDs for quick trading, or ETFs for balance, gold will remain by your side. In an era of uncertainty, there may be no better metal that doesn’t lie or disappoint.

The first step: define what you truly want. Everything else will follow naturally.