A few days ago, I discussed the issues of the long-term cycle and the altcoin season, as well as some thoughts on 2026 as a transition period. Today, I want to connect these ideas and share my core logic with everyone.

Trend investors understand a fundamental principle — don’t go against the trend. That’s why many people didn’t suffer significant losses in this cycle on altcoins; in plain terms, they simply didn’t touch them. It might sound like they missed out on something, but in the context of monetary tightening, actively abandoning high-risk assets is actually the smartest decision.

Cryptocurrencies themselves are at a disadvantage compared to US stocks — more volatile, higher risk. Yet even so, mainstream coins like BTC can still attract funds due to strong consensus, but most altcoins? To be blunt, they are basically air. US stocks at least have financial reports as a reference; even during tightening cycles, a stellar performance can push stock prices up. But what about altcoins?

Any data from projects could be misleading. TVL might be inflated artificially, APR could be manipulated through token swaps, and whether a protocol is truly decentralized is anyone’s guess. Most users are just here for airdrops, which can’t support the real value of the project.

Even when a few genuinely profitable protocols occasionally appear, project teams are afraid to directly link their earnings to token value for fear of being classified as “security tokens” by regulators. So, what ultimately drives the crypto market? To put it simply, FOMO. Consensus is essentially a variation of FOMO — the things that can hype up a coin are often driven by this spreading emotion.