Gold price assessment in the last weekly session: supporting factors and constraints limiting the rise

Weekly Movement Summary: Up 5.4% Amid Sharp Volatility

The trading week closed on a mixed note, with the yellow metal experiencing sharp fluctuations across most sessions, starting with the reopening of the US government after 43 days of shutdown. Despite selling pressures at the end of the week, gold managed to preserve weekly gains of 4.5%, reflecting strong demand for safe-haven assets amid ongoing economic uncertainty.

Impact of Government Reopening: Broad Sell-Off but Missing Data Keeps Support

The return of government operations triggered a widespread correction wave across markets, especially in commodities and precious metals. However, the other side of this development is the loss of highly important economic data — particularly labor market indicators — which should have been collected during the shutdown. This information gap increased investor caution and uncertainty, making the Federal Reserve’s assessment of the economic situation more ambiguous.

Result: Gold maintained strong underlying demand as a safe haven, despite repeated profit-taking after each upward attempt.

Rate Cut Expectations in Decline: From 64% to 51% and Its Impact on Sentiment

Statements from Federal Reserve officials marked a pivotal turning point in price trajectories. The probability of a rate cut in December decreased from 64% to 51%, according to market expectations, indicating a return of caution among monetary policymakers.

This decline in expectations directly affects gold’s appeal, as the precious metal benefits from lower (interest rates that increase the cost of holding). However, concerns about weak economic data — especially labor market performance — remain a counteracting factor supporting demand.

Dollar and Yields Dynamics: A Delicate Balance Dictating Short-Term Trends

The (DXY) dollar index continued its decline for the second consecutive session, boosting gold’s attractiveness to investors in other currencies. Meanwhile, US Treasury yields rose, increasing the opportunity cost of holding an asset that does not generate direct income.

This tug-of-war created a relatively narrow price range between $4,151 and $4,201 per ounce during the day, reflecting traders’ inability to decisively break resistance zones.

Profit-Taking Sentiment: A Psychological Barrier to Upside Breakout

Traders began taking profits after a strong rally during the week, significantly reducing upward momentum. Prices retreated from a three-week high of $4,244.94 per ounce, reflecting a well-known behavioral pattern in commodity markets: anticipation of gains after a rapid move.

This short-term correction indicates the need for a consolidation phase before any new upward attempt.

Technical Map: Critical Levels Define Future Scenarios

On the four-hour chart, gold shows a gradual recovery after stabilizing above several minor peaks. The formation of an ascending bottom suggests buyers’ desire to regain control, but strong resistance at $4,188–$4,200 remains the main technical obstacle.

Bullish Scenario: A clear breakout above $4,200 could open the way toward $4,270 first, then retesting the all-time high at $4,381 — the previous maximum gold failed to surpass during the last wave.

Bearish Scenario: A breakdown below $4,171 could send prices toward $4,046 (supporting the weekly uptrend), and if this break is exceeded, $3,928 becomes the last major support zone before a broader correction.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) moves between 60 and 67 points, a positive range but not yet overbought, leaving room for further upside technically.

Performance of Other Metals: Collective Rise Led by Silver Hype

The rally was not limited to gold alone. Silver rose today by 1.3% to $53 per ounce, on track for its best week since September 2024 with a 9.7% increase from the start of the week. Platinum gained 1% to $1,596.10, and palladium jumped 1.4% to $1,446.31.

This collective rise confirms that demand for safe assets and hedging against volatility remains strong broadly among investors monitoring economic and geopolitical risks.

Summary: A Week of Opportunities and Constraints

Gold maintained its appeal as a hedge this week despite multiple pressures. The reopening of the government re-priced markets, and the decline in rate cut probabilities reduced momentum, but weak dollar and the absence of recent economic data kept a fundamental support base intact.

Next week, traders await new data that could clarify the actual path of US monetary policy and the state of the labor market — the two key factors that will determine whether gold can break above $4,200 and continue toward new levels, or if it will succumb to a deeper correction wave.