Goldman Sachs' new forecast: the US dollar to RMB exchange rate will reach 7 yuan by the end of the year, and is expected to rise to 6.85 by 2026.

The “strong moment” of the Renminbi has truly arrived. Goldman Sachs’ latest analysis provides a clear exchange rate forecast—by the end of the year, the US dollar against the Renminbi will reach the 7 yuan level, and one year later, it will continue to appreciate to 6.85 yuan. This is not baseless speculation; there is a chain of data supporting it.

Appreciation Magnitude Comparison, Market Signals Are Clear

A stark contrast to the depreciation pressure in 2018. That year, the Renminbi depreciated about 5% under the impact of the US trade war, whereas by 2025, the Renminbi has appreciated nearly 3%—the direction is completely reversed, which itself sends an important signal.

As of November 26, the US dollar in onshore RMB fell to 7.0824, and offshore RMB fell to 7.0779, both hitting over a one-year low. Earlier, on November 21, the CFETS RMB Exchange Rate Index rose to 98.22, the highest level since April this year.

Driving Factors: From Monetary Policy to Strategic Positioning

The dual forces driving RMB appreciation are quite clear. First, the fundamental impact of the Federal Reserve gradually cutting interest rates has opened up space for RMB appreciation. Second, domestic China is actively guiding— the People’s Bank of China’s daily setting of the midpoint rate continues to rise, and state-owned banks frequently buy US dollars to stabilize the market, with the entire system working together to push up the RMB exchange rate.

There are deeper strategic considerations behind this. As Kelvin Lam, senior economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics, pointed out, from a strategic perspective, China seems to intentionally demonstrate a stable RMB image to build international credibility. This approach recalls the historical behavior during the 1998 Asian financial crisis, when the RMB refused to join the wave of competitive devaluation, thereby consolidating its regional anchor currency status.

Accelerating Internationalization: Data Validates Market Reality

Data from the Bank for International Settlements provides strong validation. Since the last survey in 2022, the daily trading volume of US dollars against RMB has increased by nearly 60%, reaching $781 billion, accounting for over 8% of the total global daily foreign exchange trading volume—this growth indicates genuine market recognition of RMB appreciation and internationalization.

Kiyong Seong, Chief Asia Macro Strategist at Société Générale, also pointed out that demonstrating RMB strength and stability in turbulent market environments provides strong evidence to promote RMB internationalization.

Future Outlook: Policy Focus Clear, Accelerating in Progress

Goldman Sachs analysts emphasize that, based on a comprehensive assessment of economic and non-economic factors, RMB internationalization has become a key policy focus for the Chinese government and is expected to accelerate significantly in the coming years. This also explains why the US dollar against RMB is moving so “cooperatively”—this is not just spontaneous market behavior but a clear policy direction.

For traders, this appreciation cycle means far more than just exchange rate numbers. Every RMB appreciation is a boost to China’s international influence and market recognition.