Recently, fans have been asking questions like: a certain coin has been consolidating for over 8 months, is a breakout about to happen? Before I could even reply, it dropped below the entire range the next day. Many heard about cutting losses at the lowest point and started to doubt whether this coin still has a chance.

Honestly, every time I encounter this situation, I want to say—"How long it consolidates, how high it can go"—this theory is long outdated. Especially in the current market environment, this phrase has almost become a self-soothing mantra for losing investors. Having been in the crypto space for over seven years, today I want to open my heart and talk about: after a consolidation break, where are the real opportunities for altcoins, and how many times have we been fooled by the "consolidation myth."

Let me pour some cold water: not all consolidations are "accumulation," most of the time they are just "a period of stagnation." Take that example of an 8-month consolidation—have you ever thought about why it still fell after such a long period? There are only two core reasons: the first is the capital logic within the consolidation.

Coins that can break out of consolidation will inevitably show signs of continuous capital inflow during the entire consolidation period. Specifically, the weekly trading volume will maintain a steady and moderate increase, and even during pullbacks, it’s rare to see three consecutive drops below the range's lower boundary. But now, many altcoins that have been consolidating for 8 or 10 months are essentially in a vacuum period left behind after the main players have finished distributing their holdings. The main players had already sold off most of their chips during earlier small rallies, leaving retail investors to fight among themselves. The longer the consolidation lasts, the worse the liquidity becomes.