Bitcoin, Ethereum, Ripple: Overlapping bearish signals require checking the scenario of 'extended correction phase'

Overall Market: Top 3 Assets Simultaneously Weakening, Signals of a ‘Prolonged’ Correction Not Just a Simple Reversal

Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Ripple are all experiencing downward pressure simultaneously, indicating a spreading risk-averse sentiment across the market. The fact that the top three assets by market cap are moving in the same direction, rather than due to individual issues, suggests that a deeper market correction is underway rather than a mere ‘technical retracement.’

Particularly noteworthy is that momentum indicators like RSI and MACD are simultaneously reinforcing bearish signals. This is not just a one- or two-time price touch but increases the likelihood that the correction pressure will ‘persist.’ Here is a systematic overview of the key levels and indicators investors should be aware of.

Bitcoin(BTC): Holding at $85,569 — ‘A Fork in the Road’ for Its Fate

Spot Price Status: Moving around $87,300, but the daily close is at a critical juncture

Bitcoin has been in a downtrend throughout the week. It was halted by the downtrend line(connecting the highs since early October), and has fallen approximately 7% over the week, reaffirming support at $85,569 on Monday. Since then, it experienced a slight rebound from this zone on Tuesday, but as of Wednesday, it is trading near $87,300, roughly unchanged.

The key point is not a ‘one- or two-time touch followed by a rebound,’ but whether it can hold the $85,569 daily close. This level overlaps with the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement zone, and a clear break below could quickly trigger a sell signal.

Momentum Status:

• Daily RSI is around 40, remaining in a bearish zone below 50
• MACD lines are gradually converging, signaling an imminent bearish crossover
• This indicates that additional downside momentum remains

Scenario Analysis:

Bearish Scenario (Break below the $85,569 daily close): The psychological support at $80,000 is likely to become the next defense line. Further correction down to this level is within a plausible range.

Bullish Rebound Scenario: If a rebound gains momentum, the upper target could be set at $94,253(61.8% retracement). However, given the current momentum indicators, the probability of this scenario materializing appears relatively low.

Ethereum(ETH): Deepening ‘Bearish Bias’ After Falling Below $3,000

Spot Price Status: Around $2,930, continuing a four-day decline

Ethereum has been in a persistent downtrend since failing to close above the 50-day EMA($3,249) on December 10. It has already corrected about 11% through Tuesday, and continued weakness on Wednesday has it trading below $2,946.

Technical bearish signals are clearly evident. The daily RSI is at 41, below 50, and MACD has already shown a bearish crossover, strengthening the downward momentum. This means the bearish trend is not just starting but ongoing.

Key Support Levels in Downtrend:

If the current bearish momentum persists, the next notable support is around $2,749. The price would need to decline roughly another 6% from current levels to reach this zone.

Rebound Possibility:

For Ethereum to ‘shift into an upward trend,’ it must at least reclaim the 50-day EMA($3,249). This would require an increase of over 10% from the current price, which seems unlikely in the short term given the prevailing bearish momentum.

Ripple(XRP): Falling Below $1.96 Expands ‘Downside Risks’

Spot Price Status: Around $1.87, below key support

Ripple has declined for two consecutive weeks(-3.22%), and on Sunday, it retested the critical daily support at $1.96. On Monday, the daily close fell below this support, generating a significant technical signal. After a slight rebound on Tuesday, it is currently trading near $1.91 on Wednesday.

Difference Between ‘Touch’ and ‘Close Below’ Support: The market perceives a breach of support at the close( rather than just a touch) as more serious. XRP has already confirmed a close below support, increasing downside risk.

Bearish Momentum Signals:

• Daily RSI at 37, in a bearish zone below 50
• MACD has maintained a bearish crossover since Sunday
• Both indicators reinforce each other, structurally supporting downward pressure

Bearish Scenario (Continued Weakness):

The next daily support level for XRP is around $1.77. It would need to decline about 5.6% from current levels, which is within the realm of possibility if current momentum persists.

Rebound Scenario (Mitigating Weakness):

Even if a rebound occurs, the first resistance level to watch is $1.96. Given the current bearish signals, breaking above this level would require significant buying strength.

Overall Assessment: Confirmed Technical Weakness, Watch for Potential ‘Prolonged’ Short-term Correction

All three assets show reinforced bearish momentum via indicators like RSI and MACD, and their respective support levels are being breached. This suggests that the market correction may extend beyond a simple ‘technical retracement’ into a sustained bearish phase. Investors should monitor these key support levels carefully and consider managing positions with an outlook that acknowledges the possibility of a ‘prolonged’ correction rather than expecting quick rebounds.