Four Ways to Make Money in the prediction market 1️⃣ Look for Arbitrage opportunities where "the total is less than 100" (Dutch-book Arbitrage) This is the only "mathematically guaranteed" method in the prediction market. In a healthy, arbitrageable multi-choice market, if you can buy all mutually exclusive options for a total of less than $1.00, you will get back $1.00 no matter who wins. • Principle: Assume a competition has A, B, C
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Four Ways to Make Money in the prediction market 1️⃣ Look for Arbitrage opportunities where "the total is less than 100" (Dutch-book Arbitrage) This is the only "mathematically guaranteed" method in the prediction market. In a healthy, arbitrageable multi-choice market, if you can buy all mutually exclusive options for a total of less than $1.00, you will get back $1.00 no matter who wins. • Principle: Assume a competition has A, B, C