Core Situation Assessment: Is it a "bottoming" or a "downward correction"?

• Short-term support confirmation: ETH spiked back up around $2,962, indicating that there is indeed strong buying pressure from longs and closing positions from shorts in this range.
• Indicator repair demand: 15 minutes/1 hour KDJ is in a low oversold position. Technically, a rebound is needed to digest the divergence rate from the sharp fall in the early morning.
• Trend determination: rebound rather than reversal. Overall, the 4-hour and daily levels remain bearish. Therefore, the next strategy is: re-enter short positions at high levels > bet on short longs at support levels.
Shorting again at a high position (main strategy, following the mid-term trend)
The ideal next secondary short point will slightly shift downward:
• First resistance area: $3,010 - $3,025 (1 hour Bollinger middle band).
• Second resistance zone: $3,040 - $3,055 (near the starting point of the fall in the early morning).

• If the price pulls back to around $3,025 and shows an upper shadow, you can re-enter a short position (the position can be set to 1/2 of the previous one).
• Stop loss: Set at $3,075 (must stop loss before breaking the previous high).
• Take profit: Looking back at the $2,950 area, which is a dense liquidation zone for long positions.
3. Risk/Opportunity Weight Before Christmas
• 24-hour risk: If it falls below $2,950, it will trigger the $850 million long positions liquidation we calculated earlier. At that time, the market will drop vertically, directly looking at $2,880.
• Christmas Market: Historically, on Christmas Eve (23-24), there is often a behavior of "fake-out shorts" followed by a rally.
Core observation: Looking for the "golden pit"
Liquidity Hunting (High Win Rate Pin Bar Long)
• Ultimate entry point: $2,880 - $2,915
• Logic: * Dense liquidation zone: The $2,950 we mentioned before is just the first line of defense. The real bulls' last line of defense and dense liquidation zone is around $2,880 - $2,900.
• Daily level support: Referring to the daily K-line, the lower Bollinger Band is currently extending upwards, forming strong support around $2,880.
• Trading Suggestion: Do not place orders directly; instead, wait for the price to rapidly increase in volume and fall below $2,950, and when it touches around $2,900 with a rapid decrease in volume or even a 15-minute long lower shadow, enter the market at market price.
• Stop loss: $2,840 (a break below the previous low would basically declare the end of the Christmas market).
• Target level: Review $3,050.
Confirm reversal (right side safely go long)
• Confirm entry point: $3,035 - $3,045 (after stabilizing)
• Logic: * Breakthrough resistance: The starting point of this downward correction is at $3,060. If the price can recover to $3,030 and stabilize at the 1-hour level, it indicates that the breakdown is a complete "bear trap."
• Christmas market kicks off: Stabilizing here usually signifies the official start of the Christmas market, with a target straight at $3,300.
• Stop loss: $2,990.
• Target price: $3,200 - $3,350.
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