The “new wave” of trading. Every few days someone approaches to me with “this predictive app/ai/tool is showing me a 78% chance Bitcoin is at $xxx by whatever date”.

So… In other words the plot gets worst. Predictive markers are a thing now, bo featuring mathematical AI models which are obviously better than the ones any of us can do. Recently a member shared screenshots of Bitcoin pushing to 150K in November with a 78% probability he went HARD with size, you can imagine what happened after…. “Joe what do I do now, the prediction and the fractal fooled me, I lost $700K”

But this is a double edge sword, for gamblers. The compulsive need to find certainty in order to bet big and aggressive, gets worst due to this illusion. This is the kind of data that you need to take with a pinch of salt even probability at 99% is NOT certainty. Please, read and study about mathematical probability and statistics.

Ultimately it doesn’t matter the model, the primary driver for any bet should always be based on risk management, NEVER on “potential” ideas.