Year-end market affairs of #数字资产市场洞察 : Once the Liquidity tightens, the trends start to get tricky. Especially in the precious metals zone, it's simply incredible.

Let's talk about the recent market situation—on December 22, the global market generally surged. Spot gold decisively broke through the historical threshold of $4400/ounce, and US stock futures and oil prices also saw a rise. Sounds good, right? But here's the problem: trading volume is shrinking, and a lot of funds have already gone on holiday. In such an environment where liquidity is at a low, any upward movement can easily lead to amplified volatility, and no one can say how long it will last. Essentially, it's an emotional game when the market cannot find direction.

Precious metals are indeed taking center stage. As for gold, the tense geopolitical situation combined with expectations of potential interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve has maximized its safe-haven attributes, leading to a strong breakout through various technical levels. However, silver is the real star this year—its price increase has directly outperformed gold. Why? Three reasons combine: the global energy transition and fields like AI and photovoltaics have created an absurdly strong industrial demand for silver; the supply side has faced structural shortages for several consecutive years; and most importantly, silver has long been severely undervalued compared to gold, and we are now witnessing a process of value correction.

On the macro front, the US November CPI year-on-year is 2.7%, and the unemployment rate has soared to 4.6%. This relatively weak data indeed reinforces the market's expectation of the Federal Reserve continuing to cut interest rates. However, there is a lack of consensus within the Federal Reserve, and the policy path remains unclear. Additionally, with the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict and turmoil in the Middle East, the safe-haven sentiment for gold continues unabated.

Looking ahead? The long-term logic of gold is sound—global central banks continue to purchase gold, and the backdrop of de-dollarization is still in play. In the short term, the market is still in vacation mode, with low liquidity and high volatility. Until clearer macro signals emerge in January, the true direction is still hard to discern. For gold, don't chase at high levels; just maintain solid support levels. Silver is even more volatile, making it more suited for short-term or swing trading. The most stable approach for investors right now is to watch and gradually build positions, waiting for the market rhythm to clarify at the beginning of the year.